BuffaloWeather

The higher resolution models will start to get within range with tonights runs.

The CIPS analogs are insane, majority are major events.

If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night.

Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday A chance of snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely before 1am, then snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

GFS

Save worthy AFD from KBUF .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... There continues to be growing confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. From this early week vantage point though...the KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs are favored. This event will certainly have some historical precedence though in that several crippling storms have occurred at roughly the same time in November...particularly in the BUF area. Remember Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While we are not suggesting the same for the upcoming event...merely a correlation with the calendar. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes from the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas into their respective northern suburbs. Again...placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (230-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of >1"/hr is becoming more plausible. Headlines will be issued as confidence levels increase. While the steering will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend...a cold southwest flow is being advertised by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There`s a potential for significant lake effect snow Thursday night through Saturday. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact ban placement and amounts, but it is possible that there will be periods of heavy snow across the Niagara Frontier, including the Buffalo metro area during this time.

So thats all 4 globals showing absolutely ridiculous QPF outputs in the 4-6" range. Would be one of the biggest LES in history if that comes to fruition.

Lake Erie at a record high for the date today at 55 degrees, 5 degrees above average. Previous record for the date was 54 degrees. Latest Lake Temperatures 941 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 The water temperature off Buffalo is 55 degrees.

4-5" of qpf

latest UK

Even the UK drops 3-4" of qpf

GEM with 6" of QPF....

GFS GEM

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND... A favorable pattern for lake effect snow will develop during the period with a mid level trough axis across the Great Lakes and 850mb temperatures averaging between -7 and -12C. The location of lake effect bands is highly dependent on wind direction which will be determined by subtle features such as the timing and strength of embedded shortwaves. It`s important to acknowledge that the 12Z GFS/GGEM show a predominantly SW flow which could produce heavy snowfall across the Niagara Frontier and Buffalo metro area. However, it`s also common for model guidance to shift in this timeframe, so it`s prudent not to get too hung up on one particular model. Now for the details... Predominantly westerly flow expected Wednesday night and Thursday which would direct lake snows across the Western Southern Tier and far south towns off Lake Erie and across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. 850mb temps more marginal (-7C) so precipitation may mix with rain along the lake shores at times. It also appears a weak mid- level ridge may cross which would strip away moisture during Thursday which would mute the lake response for a bit. Fairly good model agreement that an approaching shortwave will shift the flow to the SW Thursday night, with this potentially lasting through Friday night. This is when there will be the greatest potential for snow across the Niagara Frontier and in Jefferson County, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. 850 mb temperatures will be around -11C which is plenty cold enough to support snow, and there should be ample synoptic moisture in place. It`s still far too early to pin down exact band location or amounts, but this is the timeframe of greatest concern. Another shortwave will approach Saturday, which could result in a SSW flow which could direct snows across western Niagara county the St. Lawrence River, and even into Canada at times Saturday before winds shift back to the WSW behind it. Lake snows should begin to diminish on Sunday as 850mb warm a bit and with drier mid-level air. During this period, lake snows may be intense but are likely to be fairly mobile which will somewhat limit additional accumulation at any one location.

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We have 42 members that joined discord so far, anyone feel free to PM me for an invite as things start to get active across the region.

Still 4 days out from the start of the event but starting to look much better as we get closer. Cold air and moisture are virtual locks. Wind direction/shear/time over one spot would be only hindrance that I can see so far.

All showing 3-4" of QPF in the form of snow

All globals are now dropping feet of snow across erie county and metro buffalo next weekend

It’s coming! It is important to note, that while it is still early, some of the more reliable guidance for lake effect is indicating the possibility of a significant lake effect snow event for areas northeast of both lakes later in the week. This would include for the Buffalo Metro area and for the Watertown area. As usual, as time gets closer, model guidance should come to better agreement on the potential for this event.