BuffaloWeather

Tom Niziol responded to my tweet.

#1 analog showing up on CIPS

The analogs are all the historically big storms for BUF https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2022111412&map=thbCOOP72 https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2022111412&map=tbl

WPC ...Great Lakes... Days 1-3... A long duration of heavy Lake Effect Snow (LES) is likely to begin Wednesday and persist beyond this forecast period. The amplified trough swinging eastward through the Great Lakes and into New England which will drive the nor'easter in New England will leave broad cyclonic flow in its wake with pronounced CAA. Additionally, weak spokes of vorticity will continually rotate eastward within this cyclonic flow to enhance deep layer ascent, with each one driving a supplemental surface trough eastward. These will enhance CAA, and 850mb temps are progged to fall to -8C to -12C, while lake surface temps remain +8 to +14C according to GLERL, highest in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will produce an increasingly favorable environment with steep low level lapse rates to produce sufficient instability, deepening inversion depths, and plentiful moisture to support LES. Minor wind trajectory differences will significantly impact the placement of these bands and subsequent snowfall, but it does appear a significant LES event will begin, especially on D3, and most pronounced downstream of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, but significant snowfall is also likely on the less typical western side of the Lakes on Tuesday before a surface trough swings the flow to NW. WPC probabilities on D2 feature a moderate risk for more than 4 inches west of Lake Superior, Michigan, and Huron, with locally more than 8 inches possible near Alpena, MI. By D3, The flow becomes more typical and pronounced for LES, with WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches exceeding 40% in the western U.P., southwest lower Michigan, and downstream of Lake Erie and Ontario, with locally more than 12 inches likely along the Chautauqua Ridge and into the Tug Hill Plateau. While heavy snow will begin on Thursday downstream of the Lakes, this could become a major, long duration, LES event for parts of these areas into the medium range.

Yeah this might be the one. Obviously want to get closer with the higher res stuff to give more clarity.

Thursday Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Updated FD: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

First band forms Thursday. Heaviest stuff is Fri/Sat.

KBUF is confident enough to have a watch 3 days before event starts, very rare. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible, including across the Buffalo metro area.

Euro showing more realistic QPF amounts, still a very big event.

Local weather starting to talk about it

UK spitting out similar totals but a little further inland. Winds don't look very high so inland penetration will not be extreme.

Beautiful picture! Lakes going to be firing later this week! Globals are showing 55" at 1:10 ratio around here, never seen anything like it. Do you guys still have a lake effect thread going like the last few years?

I don't think I've ever seen globals spit out that much QPF for a LES event in all my years following it.

GEM is very similar with amounts with 5-6" of QPF, slightly further south

The 12z runs went even crazier for this event. 55" at 1:10 over Buffalo with 5.56" of QPF GFS

check pms

This could be an all timer.

Over 3" of QPF

RGEM showing 20" of snow at 1:10 ratios before the real event even starts...

Are you coming up from Tampa? If so I'd say get a hotel close to the airport. Still too far out to completely predict wind direction but looks good for that area.

Cleveland NWS on the potential for LES SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period should be highly anticipated for those that enjoy the plunge to winter and snow, especially lake effect. For Tuesday night, a shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley will support a weak low across the area. This low will not be all that impressive from a temperature or precipitation standpoint. Expecting a light bit of rain across the entire area with the low and shortwave passage with perhaps rain changing to snow towards the end of the night as colder temperatures wrap in by daybreak on Wednesday. However, it is the colder air pulled in behind the system and the priming moisture with the low that will set up the area for the rest of the week`s weather. On Wednesday morning, the area will start with a residual surface trough across the region with cooling temperatures spilling in. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will loom just west of the Great Lakes region. This trough will dig through the Great Lakes during the day on Wednesday and bring some reinforcing colder air aloft, while veering the general flow to the west-northwest. This should allow for a typical lake effect snow setup for our area for Wednesday night and beyond. For now, expecting pretty good moisture across the area with the preconditioning from Tuesday night`s system. For instablilty, 850 mb temperatures of -7 to -12 C and 700 mb temperatures of -16 to -18 C through the second half of the forecast period - all over a Lake Erie with surface temperatures in the 50s (12-13 C) - indicate significant lake-induced instability for lake effect snow. In fact, while early, there is evidence that the boundary layer depth for lake effect could exceed 10 kft, which would support fairly efficient lake effect snows. Finally, there should be plenty of lift with the general upper trough across the region to allow for all of these favorable parameters to be utilized for snow development. This all just leaves two questions: "Where?" and "How much?" For the Wednesday night through Thursday night period, low level flow should be north of west, which would send snow into OH/PA vs. NY. The question is how quickly does this flow try to back around to west or southwest and send snow downstream into NY, which is certainly expected in the long term period below. In the end, there is heightened attention for accumulating snow for mid-week and the question is more on the "when" a headline would be needed vs. an "if" for portions of NW PA and NE OH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... By daybreak Friday, organized lake effect snow will be occurring over the eastern portion of Lake Erie and adjacent land areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania. The question for lake effect for Friday is where is snow actually occurring. As a wave of energy moves through the upper trough over the Great Lakes, flow will begin backing toward the southwest and would start shifting snow north and more over Lake Erie and into western New York. Of course, if any of the lake effect mentioned in the short term above becomes very organized, the northward shift could be slower and more snow could be present across the area during the day on Friday. With that, have likely PoPs for NW PA on Friday and trending down with the expected northward shift. For Saturday into Sunday, the trough over the region appears to deepen with another wave of energy across the area and some light snow could occur across the entire area with this feature. However, once the wave passes, southwest flow will be even more pronounced and any lake effect would be favored northeast of the forecast area. Therefore, have some slight chance to chance PoPs for now for the weekend with the highest in PA. Temperatures through the period appear extremely cold for the third weekend of November. High temperatures will be lucky to escape warmer than 30 degrees with reinforcing bouts of colder air. Lows will be quite frosty in the teens for most locations, especially if there are some breaks in the clouds as lake effect shifts north. Lows in far NE OH/NW PA and near the lakeshore may try to hang on to the lower 20s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There`s a potential for significant lake effect snow Wednesday night through Saturday. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact ban placement and amounts. Periods of heavy snow are possible during this time, especially closer to the Lake Erie shoreline where lake effect snow will be more persistent. Given that `regular` deer season opens at the end of this week...DOT agencies and other snow removal operations may want to review staffing levels.