BuffaloWeather

NAM coming into range.

If anyone wants an invite to the discord, please send me a PM. Trying to keep it strictly upstate/great lakes posters/chasers. We have 48 posters that have joined so far.

This looks to be a 3/4 part event. RGEM showing 20" for the southtowns tomorrow night/thursday

Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers before noon, then a chance of rain showers between noon and 5pm. Thursday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

I got a spare bedroom if anyone needs to crash. I believe I will be south of the hardest hit area this time. Might go stay at my dads house near the airport. Winds look primarily out of the SW for majority of this event which would land all of metro buffalo in the crosshairs. The last time I saw crippling from Buf NWS was from Nov 2014 where I got 88" in 3 days.

Lake Erie is at a record high for the date at 54 degrees.

If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

This mornings runs GFS RGEM

First part of the event forecast totals

Also calls the event crippling! .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

Latest watch now calls for feet of snow! ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. There is still uncertainty in the exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible, including across the heart of the Buffalo metro area.

Just a textbook look on GEFS and EPS, remarkable consistency.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1027 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 NYZ010>012-085-151130- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.221118T0000Z-221121T0000Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 1027 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible, including across the Buffalo metro area. NYZ007-151130- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.221118T0000Z-221121T0000Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 1027 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Jefferson county. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration lake effect snow event later Thursday night into this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but it is possible that multiple periods of heavy snow will occur across the Eastern Lake Ontario region, especially across Jefferson County, including the city of Watertown.

HPC QPF

Thursday Snow showers likely before 1pm, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

All the ingredients are coming together for a potential historic lake effect snow event for the Buffalo Metro area and surrounding suburbs. The global models have been very consistent the last few days in dropping 4-6" of QPF over Central and Northern Erie county in the form of snow. Winter storm watches are already out for this event. To think these are the exact dates from the historic event back in 2014 that dropped over 7 feet in 3 days across the area! Save worthy forecast discussion from BUF LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends. GFS GEM Euro UK The CIPS analogs for this system have many of this regions biggest LES events https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2022111412&map=thbCOOP72

These are 1:10 ratios....

GEM

These globals have been consistent for days. GFS

Reeds coming!