BuffaloWeather

RGEM NAM

Tonights runs drifted a little south with the band and slightly increased QPF. GFS GEM

Elma ny had 98” in November 2014, I had 88” here. Buffalo airport record is dec 2001 event at 82”. 2007 is biggest event on record at tug hill 10 day totals of 140”

If I wasn't excited before I'm officially excited now. Lake effect king called for 40"+ this morning in our discord. What are your thoughts on lightning, band placement/strength, residence time? I might be too far south for this one. Trying to figure out my game plan as my dad lives near the airport and might be better positioned.

Through Friday at 7 am

Looks about the same, slightly south. 4" of QPF in hardest hit area.

There is potential for that. Some are talking about having the game in Detroit as we play Detroit on thanksgiving.

Thats from accuweather which is obviously hyping it up. But the local National weather service is projecting similar totals of multiple feet. All 3 globals show 40-60" of snow with 3-5" of QPF.

The RGEM with an insane run. 5" of QPF over my house. The band will still be going for 48 hours after this run ends.

I got season tickets so I'll be there as well.

18z NAM goes a little south with the band. The band is still going for 2-3 days after the end of this run. Not sure what ratios will be but early season events are usually lower than later season events when the lake and air is colder. Probably looking at 1:13-1:16 ratios.

Fresh off the press .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... Big picture is that the significant, high-end lake effect event off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario remains on track Thursday night through much of the weekend. There are some subtle differences in steering flow that could impact northern extent of band on Friday especially. Deep H5 trough Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes remains in place Fri/Sat before becoming negative tilted as it shifts across New England on Sunday. In low-levels sfc-H85 low remains across northern Ontario toward Hudson Bay Friday into Saturday with H85 temps at or below -9c. Given water temps averaging 10-12c, this will ensure ample over-water instability with inversions increasing to around 10kft and EQLs a bit higher. Deep moisture advects across the lakes Thu night into Fri night in wake of a shortwave working across the lower Great Lakes. This shortwave will also ignite the lake effect off Lake Erie, rather abruptly after the lake effect on Thursday begins to diminish and soon thereafter to the northeast of Lake Ontario. There is increasing consensus this well developed lake band forms early to mid evening off Erie, but probably just after the tail end of the evening commute. Then, as we typically see it will start 6 hr or so later off Lake Ontario. We are still pretty far out in time from the heart of the event, so forecasts will continue to refine placement of where heaviest snow bands develop. But, there is no change to the thinking that KBUF and KART metro areas are favored, especially later Thursday night through Friday night. This event has some historical precedence, with latest CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles or the more recent twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow. The pattern suggests this type of high-impact event could occur, but at this point it is impossible to suggest the same magnitude for the upcoming event. Local studies from the KBUF office do support a high-end event with stark similarities in the expected synoptic pattern and for those larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow with a very sharp northern edge to the band between a ton of snow and very little, but it is still too early to get that detailed. A pattern that certainly favors thunder so kept this in off both lakes as well. Looking more into steering flow, there is decent agreement on a 250- 260 flow backing more to 240-250 flow rest of the night Thursday night which points to band off Lake Erie from Southtowns to downtown Buffalo to Cheektowaga and on into Genesee county. Peak snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour set up late Thursday night. Into Friday, flow starts day 240 so again, Buffalo downtown and into the Northtowns and possibly lifting into southern portions of Niagara and Orleans counties. Band of snow will diminish to the south of the Southtowns and likely shut off alltogether across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. So our watch ends there at that time. Later Friday is where things get a bit muddled. Generally the usually preferred Canadian shows a sharper shortwave crossing and veers winds enough to push us back to a 250-260 flow. Other guidance not on board. Trended ever so slightly toward Canadian idea, but mainly kept the band with 2-3" per hour rates downtown Buffalo to airport with several inches on into western Genesee county but it feasibly could slip back toward the Southtowns if the Canadian idea is correct. Friday night, there is potential that winds back enough ahead of stronger wave that arrives later in the weekend to push band more into Niagara and Orleans counties. Thus, have expanded the watch into those counties as a result. These details will continue to be refined as we move into the warning phase of this event. Turning to Lake Ontario, generally the flow Friday/Friday night and even Saturday will be 230-240, so this appears to be a Watertown/Fort Drum and far northern Jefferson county event. Hit this message in our WSW statement. Preliminary looking more at one to two feet for those areas of northern Jefferson compared to the multiple feet possible for the band off Lake Erie. Later Saturday into Saturday night is when the well developed band appears to be most favored to lift into far western Niagara county or even Canada as sharper re-inforcing upper level and sfc trough dig across the western Great Lakes. This shift to the west of the band is brief though as sharp trough crosses on Sunday. Strong nw flow will sweep southward across both lakes, resulting in brief but heavy snow at times as the main band sweeps quickly southward. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the late this weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when our initial watches end.

maybe the strength of the band can overcome the thermals?

I'm a season ticket holder so you know I'll be there.

Might be snowed in

Maybe this will sway your mind

GEM

4" max QPF in the heart of erie county.

GFS is very consistent

Don't worry you'll be getting yours soon too. I expect the beginning and end of this event when winds are WNW/W you'll have a good chance at some snow.

Its not easy to track exactly where the bands will go but we have a general idea of the most predominant wind direction which will be SW. SW winds affect Metro Buffalo and 5-10 miles north and south.

If there was ever an event to chase it would be this one. Could be the biggest in quite a few years and looks to hit metro buffalo which would be an easy chase.

It snows for another 2-3 days after the end of this run