BuffaloWeather

70"

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. The heavy snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages.

..SNOWFALL REPORTS LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE LAT/LON ..NEW YORK ..CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY 3 S FREDONIA 3.4 IN 1045 PM 11/16 42.39N/79.33W ..ERIE COUNTY 2 S SOUTH WALES 10.0 IN 1150 PM 11/16 42.68N/78.57W 1 W COLDEN 8.2 IN 1030 PM 11/16 42.65N/78.71W 3 NE HOLLAND 7.5 IN 0950 PM 11/16 42.67N/78.51W 11.6" in Boston already

Morning runs

Tonight A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 35. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 1pm. Areas of blowing snow between 11am and 1pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Little zone of 48-60”

..SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 1 W COLDEN 8.2 IN 1030 PM 11/16 COCORAHS 3 NE HOLLAND 7.5 IN 0950 PM 11/16 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 NE BOSTON 5.3 IN 0700 PM 11/16 COCORAHS

south wales already

Andy parker from channel 2 gave me his phone number. Hes going to stream my phone as I chase this thing.

Everyone likes the discord more than here. Might just be me posting on here for this storm. I love to look back at all the pics/videos years from now.

And it begins

Jim Cantore is here in Buffalo, was likely him. One of my all time favs.

Was just in village of hamburg and got in a band with 3-4" per hour in it. Already 5-6" there.

I probably won’t sleep until Sunday. Gotta get through 2 more days of work too.

Ground is already covered here. Here we go!

The NAM continues to be on the low end of the spectrum in regards to QPF

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... A strong ridge of high pressure extending to Alaska and NW Canada will dislodge a plume of arctic air southward, flowing down across the Great Lakes within a deep trough of low pressure over Hudson Bay and to the Great Lakes. Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to -10/- 12C over the warm Great Lakes, with delta T`s between the lake surface and 850 hPa of at least 20C. This will result in ample over- water instability to help in formation of very strong lake bands. This cold airmass will linger over the Lakes through this period, producing not only lake snows, but also much below normal surface temperatures. Starting off Thu night the primary low will be near the Soo, with weak surface ridging pulling off to the east. A shortwave will be nearing the east end of Lake Erie, and together these features will back the surface winds to SW. A secondary shortwave crossing southern Lake Michigan early Friday morning will allow for general southwest flow to continue for 24-36 hours, bringing significant lake snow accumulations where bands persist the longest. Off Lake Erie... Backing surface winds will put the focus as early as Thursday evening across Buffalo metro area. Strong surface convergence and upward omega forcing, combined with increased moisture with the passing shortwave should allow a singular band of precipitation to quickly become established. The cooling aloft will allow for primarily snow, though a mix of rain/snow will occur early Thursday evening near the immediate lakeshore. Once this band sets up, it will remain fairly stationary late Thursday night and through the day Friday though there could be some varying persistence to the band, so this will still need to be considered. There continue to be hints of a weak shortwave trough moving through, veering steering winds to 250 direction. NAM and Canadian indicate this, but didn`t drift axis of heavier snow too far south. Local knowledge is once the band becomes developed, it is very hard to push it too far south. The strong convergence enhanced by the attempt at the band drifting south will just lead to impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet. This as the band of snow will be oriented along the long axis of the lake will produce very intense snowfall rates of over 3 inches per hour. Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will then not oscillate much into Friday night, this is where this band will have the best chance to produce feet of snow. The highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area (downtown and towards the airport with 240 wind) or just to the south to the south if wind direction veers to 250. Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs when the lake is still warm as it is here with values in the lower 50s at the top of end of what is typical for mid November and with a cold airmass overhead as well as equilibrium levels up towards H5 or 15-20kft AGL. This northern flank is also where we expect the stronger inbound winds as well as the highest snowfall rates to occur. Warnings remain in place. Did upgrade Wyoming county due to combination of snow through Thu morning and that county being on the far southeast edge of the strong band of snow Thursday night and beyond. Snow band still looks to push into Niagara and Orleans counties later Friday night and Saturday so watch remains up there for now due to later impacts of the snow bands. The higher lake equilibrium levels as well as well as increased lake instability may bring a few rumbles of thunder within the lake snow band. This may occur later Thursday night and through Friday night...with lightning possible over Lake Erie and to about 20-25 miles inland. Off Lake Ontario... Winds will back about 3 hours later off Lake Ontario such that to start this period lake snows will be oriented over Oswego and southern Lewis. A quick backing of the winds will steer the lake bands northward quickly, towards Watertown just past midnight. No change in this expected evolution. Once this lake effect snow band sets up through the overnight Thursday night, it will remain fairly stationary through the day Friday with the synoptic pattern forcing a general southwest flow. The strong convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow to oriented towards Jefferson County with the snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. The axis of greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown and towards Philadelphia. Late Friday into Friday night seems when highest rates will occur. Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband is becoming more and more evident and will enhance the snows over Jefferson County. Here snowfall totals will also be measured in feet, and have kept the warning going. The snow band initially clipping southern Lewis with warning amounts will then clip the northern portion of the county Friday and Friday night. There was enough confidence in seeing warning amounts in both of these areas for Lewis to upgrade it to a warning. There is also a potential for thunder to occur within the more intense portion of the Lake snowband over Lake Ontario and into the western half of Jefferson County. Likewise to Lake Erie, the taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to occur. Off both Lakes... Winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35 mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few hundred feet. Travel late Thursday night and through Friday night will be very difficult. Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly quiet. Skies will begin to clear some during the day Friday, though still cold. The clear skies Friday night outside of the lake plumes will bring a cold night, with overnight lows 10 to 15F across the inland Southern Tier as well as the southern Tug Hill. Apparent temperatures in these regions will drop into the low single digits Friday night. Strong trough still on track to drop across the region quickly on Sunday. Variable intensity snow showers and squalls possible as that occurs, with best chance early in the morning. By afternoon moderate intensity northwest flow lake effect will be ongoing especially Southern Tier and south of Lake Ontario. Chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

I live for this stuff, probably won't sleep until sunday night lol