BuffaloWeather

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Bills game moved to Detroit

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BEGINS THIS EVENING... All the ingredients are in place for a major lake effect snowstorm, with more than ample lake induced instability, a cap averaging 12- 15k ft with EQLs near 20 kft, and periodic shortwaves which will provide additional moisture. Leading shortwave moved through earlier and stronger wave is crossing central Great Lakes. This wave is already enhancing lake convection near CLE and this is what is shown to lift across the eastern basin of Lake Erie to ignite a prolonged and high-impact lake effect event as winds become southwest. The lake effect snow band with look of a mesolow along it will move rapidly northward, reaching the Buffalo metro area 8 to 9 pm this evening. The band will remain across the Buffalo area, but will meander slightly south late tonight following the passage of the shortwave. Moisture from the shortwave and the long fetch down Lake Erie will support a very intense band with snowfall rates of 3+"/hr and some lightning strikes. Initially this band will be oriented downtown Buffalo to the airport, but it does look to settle slightly to the south after midnight toward Southtowns before slowly easing back northward toward daybreak. By daybreak Friday, much of northern Erie county, except the Northtowns will be looking at snow amounts of a foot to a foot and a half. Heavy snow currently impacting Oswego county to the Tug Hill will reach Watertown shortly after midnight, with heavy lake snows impacting the northern half of Jefferson County after midnight. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr and some lightning strikes are expected. Moving into Friday, First off Lake Erie... A SW flow will direct a singular band of heavy lake effect snow up Lake Erie and inland across the City of Buffalo...the airport and out towards Batavia to start the morning. This band will remain fairly stationary through early afternoon though there could be some varying persistence to the band, so this will still need to be monitored. There is now good agreement on a shortwave trough crossing. Though subtle this will veer winds just enough to push main focus for the heavy snow band toward the Southtowns with some improvement from Buffalo to the airport. Some models are quite aggressive with this southern push. However, local knowledge is once the band becomes developed, it is very hard to push it too far south. This will have to be re-evaluated later tonight into Friday morning though. The strong convergence enhanced by the attempt at the band drifting south will result in impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet. This as the band of snow will be oriented along the long axis of the lake will produce very intense snowfall rates of over 3 inches per hour in the heart of the band. Eventually the approaching of stronger trough over the western Great Lakes will back winds enough to push the band back toward downtown Buffalo and the airport by Friday evening. At this point, putting in a bit more southward push compared to previous forecast, the highest totals into Friday evening are expected in a corridor from South Buffalo to Lancaster. For what it`s worth the snowfall record Friday for Buffalo is 8.2 inches set back in November 2000...a lake effect snow event that preceded the big November 20- 23rd event that left many stranded and produced the greatest November daily snowfall of 24.9 inches on the 20th. Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs when the lake is still warm as it is here with values in the lower 50s at the top of end of what is typical for mid November. We attempted to show this gradient more in our snow forecasts, especially overnight tonight into Friday as the band is forecast to reach its maturity. Main result was to slightly lower amounts north of a line from downtown Buffalo to the airport. For latest forecasted official snow amounts and potential ranges and probabilities see weather.gov/buf/winter. No change to keeping the thunder mention given EQLs around 20kft. The snowband will begin to drift northward Friday night as a shortwave trough drops towards the western end of Lake Erie. The backing winds will drive the heart of the snowband up towards Niagara County, while also brushing by Orleans. No changes in headlines with bulk of heavy snow for Niagara county occurring Saturday into Saturday evening. Behind this shortwave winds will veer, rather quickly and send the plume of lake snow southward passing Buffalo late Saturday night...and down towards the Buffalo southtowns and Ski Country by the end of the night. This is a quicker trend than it looked a couple days ago. This will eventually result in a shortening of our warning times. We won`t get ahead of things just yet though. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Erie down across Ski Country and the Southern Tier. This is a bit faster with the southward push, leaving the metro Buffalo area with very little if any snowfall during the day Sunday. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s, and around 30F near the Lake shoreline. Off Lake Ontario... Friday the lake effect snowband will be established over central and northern Jefferson County to start the day. The strong convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow to continue through the day across Jefferson County with the snowfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour. The axis of greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown and towards Philadelphia. Late Friday into Friday night still seems to be when highest rates will occur. Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband is remains evident and will enhance the snows over Jefferson County. Here snowfall totals will also be measured in feet, and warning continues without any modifications. The snow band initially clipping southern Lewis with warning amounts this evening will then eventually clip the northern portion of the county Friday and Friday night well to the north of Lowville. Certainly a potential for thunder to occur within the more intense portion of the Lake snowband as well as the taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to occur. Ahead of a deeper shortwave trough, winds will back late Friday night and into Saturday sending the snowband up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley and maybe for a time completely out of Jefferson county so have lowered snow amounts during this time. By Saturday night this upstream connection to Lake Erie will merge back into the Lake Ontario band, with the snow band structure increasing in strength...this as it drops southward across Jefferson County and northern Lewis. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Ontario down towards Oswego County, where a more impressive band of snow may develop with an upstream connection to Georgian Bay. Depending upon if this connection materializes, there could be at least advisory level snow amounts during the day Sunday to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Models continue to trend upward. Will need to watch this as time goes on. Off Lake Erie, snow amounts will be less. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Off both Lakes...West winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35 mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few hundred feet, especially in the vcnty of the strongest bands of snow. Travel late tonight and through Friday night will be very difficult if not impossible.

NAM finally hopped on board

18Z HRRR with almost 6" of QPF

You might be right.

Kbuf upgraded again...

Wind shift occurring on western end of lake already.

Tonight 33-49"+ point and click. A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow between noon and 2pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

RAP

For Lake Erie, a thermal trough will likely develop within the nearly 20C delta T between the lake surface and 850mb. This will likely back the surface winds 10-20 degrees such that instead of a westerly flow. Its a micro climate weather pattern, only happens in early season LES events.

6-8" per hour?

You setup downtown?

12z WRFs

If any storm chasers are up and want to join discord let me know, or any upstate posters. We have 54 members so far that joined and its poppin this morning!

I expect the ratios to be 1:12-1:15 in the beginning and then slowly rise as temperatures drop to 1:15-1:20 ratios. Compaction depends on how much snow falls, the greater the snow depth the more compaction there is.

NAM came in pretty far south

I'm right in the middle of that but I think due to the warm lake it goes 5-10 miles north with the heaviest bands. The models always underestimate the northern extent in early season events.

Good to hear from you Scott, hope all is well! We need to meet up for wings again!

Couple videos from yesterday, started out with heavy graupel.

Who said lake effect is fake effect, 6" of QPF lol