BuffaloWeather

I think it gets played, right now they’re on edge of the heaviest totals. Alot of these early season events go futher north than modeled due to thermal troughing. Gonna be a close call.

What videos? They're all on my Youtube still. I'll be live streaming all weekend!

Through 7 pm Saturday.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...Long-Duration, High-Impact Lake Snows Expected Friday Through the Rest of the Weekend... During this period the axis of deep upper level troughing will slowly pivot from James Bay and the central Great Lakes to New England and the Canadian Maritimes...while circulating a deep cyclonic flow of progressively colder air that will result in 850 mb temperatures lowering from around -8C/-9C Friday to the -10C/12C range Saturday and Sunday. Coupled with sufficient background moisture and the approach/passage of some shortwaves/surface troughs embedded within the deeper larger-scale circulation (the most notable of which looks to come between Sunday and Sunday evening)... this will result in an environment rather favorable for long- duration heavy lake effect snows downwind of the lakes. A predominantly westerly flow will direct the heaviest overall snows across areas east of the lakes...where multiple feet of snow are expected and where Winter Storm Watches have therefore been upgraded to Lake Effect Snow Warnings. This being said...the aforementioned shortwave/surface trough passages may also induce some periods of west-southwesterly flow at times...most notably east of Lake Ontario on Friday...and again downwind of both lakes Saturday into Sunday. Digging a bit further into the forecast details...during the day Friday a better aligned flow and marginally colder airmass will support the best lake effect snows east of Lake Erie...with these gradually becoming better organized and slowly drifting north across Chautauqua/Cattaraugus and Southern Erie/Wyoming counties as synoptic moisture increases a bit and the flow backs a little across the lake...with northern portions of the band possibly making it as far north as some of the more distant Buffalo Southtowns during the afternoon. Inland from the lakeshore and where snow is most persistent...this band could produce as much as 5 to 10 inches by the end of the day. Meanwhile off of Lake Ontario...a bit more of a backed/sheared west-southwesterly flow and slightly warmer airmass out ahead of a weak surface trough passing across southern Quebec will result in more disorganized lake effect snows east-northeast of that lake...where 2 to 4 inches will be possible inland from the lakeshore. As we move into Friday night...winds will veer a bit to more of a due westerly orientation following the departure of the above mentioned surface trough...resulting in the lake snows settling back southward across the traditional snow belts east of both lakes... including the Tug Hill region east of Lake Ontario. Further gradual cooling of our airmass and an increase in orographically-driven lift coupled with an increase in fetch will allow the Lake Ontario lake snows to really get going as these drift toward the Tug Hill region...likely resulting in fresh accumulations of over a foot from areas just south of Watertown to the northern portions of the Tug Hill. Meanwhile off of Lake Erie...another general 5 to 10 inches of accumulations will be likely within the most persistent snows from the southern third of Erie county southward into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. As we move through Saturday and Saturday night...the low level flow will again back at least somewhat out ahead of a more significant shortwave impulse/surface trough approaching from the Upper Great Lakes. This being said...there remains a great deal of uncertainty at this time with respect to exactly how much winds will back...with the 12z guidance exhibiting a range of scenarios between just a little north of due west (the NAM) to more southwesterly (the GEM)...with the GFS lying roughly in between the middle of these two extremes. Off Lake Erie...this stark difference is rather significant in that it implies a number of possible scenarios ranging from the lake snows remaining entirely within the current Lake Effect Snow Warning area (and south of the Buffalo area)...to making a northward migration all the way to the city and central/northern suburbs. Additionally...there are also notable differences in the timing of this wind shift...as well as other factors such as a possible increase in shear that further complicate the forecast for this time period. While definitely not a high confidence forecast...given the holiday weekend and the increased potential for at least some of the heavier lake snows to make it far enough north to potentially impact portions of the Buffalo area (most likely South Buffalo and the more immediate Buffalo Southtowns) for at least a portion of this time frame...out of an abundance of caution we have hoisted an additional Winter Storm Watch for Northern Erie county from Saturday through Sunday (more on Sunday in a moment). At this point...between Saturday and Saturday night roughly from 6 to 12 inches of snow appear possible where the Lake Erie snows are most persistent... though it must be emphasized that actual amounts will be highly dependent upon both band movement/residence time and the amount of available shear...factors that could result in higher or lower amounts than currently forecast. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...a stronger/more organized band of lake effect snow should be poised to dump an additional foot or more of snow roughly every 12 hours or so as it wobbles back northward to the Watertown area between Saturday and Saturday night...with exact amounts that will be received again a direct function of band movement/residence time and the amount of shear. At this point would expect somewhat heavier snows during Saturday when the flow is more westerly and less sheared...with a shorter west-southwesterly to southwesterly fetch and increased shear likely inducing at least some weakening in the snow band Saturday night. Sunday and Sunday night...the aforementioned more significant shortwave impulse/surface trough will slide southeastward and across our area. The increase in lift and moisture attendant to this feature should help to at least temporarily reinvigorate the lake snows while also driving these back southward...first to areas east of the lakes...and then eventually southeast of the lakes as the flow veers to west-northwesterly to northwesterly. Additional significant accumulations are likely through this time...with these again highly dependent upon band residence time and strength... factors that will in turn be heavily dependent upon the timing and speed of the trough passage. Given the potential for additional significant accums and the forecast uncertainty due to the above factors...the new Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow for Northern Erie county extends out through Sunday and the first half of Sunday night. Outside of the main lake effect bands...it will be mainly dry with just some much more scattered snow (and during Friday, rain) showers for much of this period...save for during Sunday/Sunday night when the aforementioned trough passage may also bring some more general scattered to numerous show showers/minor accumulations. Otherwise temperatures will average below normal...with highs pulling back to the upper 20s to mid 30s for both Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will remain over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region this period, with cold air (850 hPa temperatures -9 to - 12C) flowing over the still warm lake waters generating lake snows downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. A shortwave passing through the flow may lift the snowbands northward towards Buffalo and Watertown Tuesday-Tuesday night; otherwise west to west-northwest flow will continue.

Looks to be a long lasting major lake effect snow event with multiple feet of snow expected. Hardest hit areas will be south of Buffalo. The top analogs are really impressive. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible.

Lakes about to go nuts again. The analogs showing up are insane ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible.

I'll be at the game, but don't expect the band to be over Orchard Park. Looks further south this time around across ski country.

The lakes are going to be going nuts. Record warm lake temps with the arctic air lasting about 2 weeks.

Cold reloads on all 3 ensembles

The pattern coming up looks incredible, so many wintry chances. The lakes are going to be firing the first week of December.

Euro is still the king based on recent data. Operational runs Ensembles

How have you done last 10 yrs? Above average?

Some of us have done well the last 10 yrs. I'm at 129.4" average the last 11 yrs, the average here is probably around 105-110".

It's coming, who's ready?

So we went from Moderate/Strong Nina that was predicted earlier this year to neutral Enso? That's quite the change!

Climate change is increasing exponentially. Obviously my statement was a hyperbole but not that far fetched of one as we move forward.

Bold call. Every winter is above normal in terms of temps now. You can predict that every winter for next 100 yrs and probably be 95% right.

It will snow this winter. I can promise you that.

We drove to Ohio for the eclipse as it was too cloudy in Buffalo. Had full sunshine down there for it at Sandusky. I had 125" of snow last year but only because we had a large lake effect event of 77" in 4 days. Otherwise a pretty warm/dry winter. The official recording station at the airport had 71", 2 feet below normal.

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. Dec: +8.0 Jan: +3.9 Feb: +8.4 Mar: +6.7 Apr: +4.4 May: +5.8 Jun: +3.3 Jul: +2.5 Aug: +0.7 Sep: +4.5 Oct: +3.0

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo?

Does anyone know how much it deepened in 24 hrs? Set any records?

It’s doing this on October 7th…mind blowing stuff

Storm was nuts. We’ve had a few of those last 2 yrs.