BuffaloWeather

What a terrible model

Darth band, darth Vader’s uncle

After the MLK day storm Though on a smaller scale, this period features additional chances for snow each day behind the departing large scale winter storm. Tuesday lake effect snow will continue to the south and southeast of the Lakes. Snow will likely be found heaviest near Lake Ontario where a secondary trough will be dropping across the Lake, enhance low level convergence and moisture. Wednesday a fast moving alberta clipper will pass across our region, leaving several inches of snow in its wake. Ahead of this feature temperatures will rise to around freezing Wednesday before another arctic airmass drops across our region to close out the week. Thursday will be colder with highs in the lower 20s, with chances for lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario on a light northerly flow. With the arctic airmass featuring little ambient moisture, any lake effect snow will be fluffy and light.

Do you have any video/news highlights of this event?

Euro definitely went a few ticks NW, obviously still snowing after this frame.

Wow you're right its a few of those SE ones pulling the mean to the right.

Quite a few complete misses for Buffalo on GEFS, definitely went further SE then 12z.

50 miles west and you get a dusting over here, lake effect type cut off

Welcome Back Freaky!

Theres your 20 mile shift SE wolfie.

That's .25" per hour QPF

Yeah I've never seen it before in all my time looking at weather models in Upstate. I've seen it many times in strong Nor'easters.

Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. The 12Z GFS/Canadian/ECMWF continue to be in very good agreement overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale details. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track further west than climatology, however the 12Z GFS/ECMWF have trended a LITTLE further east, which is to be expected this far out. Nonetheless, things remain on track for a possible significant event across our region. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in this case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large surface high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the surface high may force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. The upper level energy that will force this system is currently over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow it to be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. Increased the PoPs to categorical for later Sunday night through Monday given the continued overall run to run agreement within the model suites. If the models continue to support this solution, confidence will continue to increase for a widespread, impactful snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system, expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night.

Watch this end up in Toronto like feb 2021

Those colors over wny is just crazy.

Someone in this storm is going to have a massive dry slot, where that ends up is anyone’s guess.

If the bills win Saturday night this thing could give me exhaust and I’d be on cloud 9.

Oh I completely agree but that’s what the qpf is showing so the kuchera map ratios are not unrealistic

I mean it drops 1.9-2.1 qpf at 1-10 that’s 19-21”. Ratios are likely 1:15 in this event?

Whatever the case, I have a holiday Monday and I will be in where ever that band sets up soaking up those rates. I'm canceling my hiking trip. I don't want to be up in the ADK hiking during an event like this. I'd end up on the news as a missing person report. lol