SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Well we’re still adding big case counts each day so until that starts dropping I’d say the peak hasn’t passed.

Hospitals starting to feel the strain

Looks like today will follow the trend of spikes in deaths on Tuesdays presumably because of catching up on weekend reporting. NJ with 362 new deaths which I believe is their highest, Louisiana with 129 which might be their highest, and NY back up near its peak with 778. If Italy/Spain have shown us anything it’s that it takes a lot of time for the number of deaths to come down. Just a terrible loss of life when you really think about the fact that all those numbers were mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, spouses, etc.

Maryland again reporting a very high % positive, 27% of the newly reported results are +.

Maryland and DC both with their highest one day deaths so far, Maryland with 40 and DC with 15.

lol dude, take a few deep breaths, everything is going to be ok, it’s just the mods trying to keep the discussion away from politics.

Quite a few asymptomatic/presymptomatic people walking around NYC!

Full sunshine now in Takoma Park...

Wow! Crazy cause it's just been breezy here. Are we expecting the peak of the synoptic winds early this afternoon?

Hopefully not wandering around but yeah.

Just semantics, I’m not arguing, of “the test results received yesterday” there was a very high + rate.

Yeah but still, of the ~2,000 tests they ran yesterday ~700 were positive. Regardless of when those tests are from that's still a high positive rate.

This is why I'm worried about how long it's going to take to get back to normal. The testing infrastructure for whatever reason just still isn't anywhere close to where it needs to be, and as we all know the most likely path back to normalcy is testing/contact tracing.

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests. That's 36% positive rate.

Large tree down on a house in my neighborhood in Takoma Park, house isn’t too badly damaged but it’s not even that windy yet...

Winds kicking up quickly

Yep, and if history is any guide all levels of government will move too slow and this will take longer than it should to come back online.

Across most of our CWA?

I don’t think this is true. It takes time for travelers to deliver the virus, and then it takes time for those sparks to turn into fires. Some of the sparks die out.

Additionally, they only ran ~2,500 tests yesterday with around 20% positive which is pretty high.

I hope you’re right! It’s been a while since we instituted the social distancing so hopefully the numbers are indeed peaking.

I’ll say this @showmethesnow, I think again you’re sort of overthinking it. Its pretty simple to me, once the number of new cases and then hospitalizations/deaths are steadily dropping that’s when we can say we’re on the downswing.

Without any baseline the testing still shows an incredible amount of sick people. And I know Maryland cleared out it’s big backlog of testing so these aren’t people who got tested very long ago anymore. The testing data absolutely is indicative of the virus being very widespread.

I think this is a very optimistic analysis of the situation. We’re still adding 30,000+ cases a day nationally, and just in MD/DC/VA we’re adding over 1,000 cases per day with limited testing criteria. That’s a lot of sick people and an indication that virus is extremely widespread. IMO we have a long ways to go.

We might be near the peak in terms of deaths per day, but the problem is Italy is about 2 weeks off its peak deaths and is still recording like 60-70% of its peak deaths each day. Coming down the backside of this peak won’t be quick.