SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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It’s really close! The potential is definitely there.
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I like the run, a surface low track from Kentucky to coastal Carolina works well for us.
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North is of course our biggest failure mode. That’s why it’s nice to have the op euro on the southern end of the envelope right now.
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National Blend of all models looks really good, with dc in the middle of the stripe around 5 inches. Then you have the EPS striping us and the Euro with the stripe just south of us. That’s about as good a consensus as we can ask for showing a solid moderate event with no precip type issues. Another day or two to iron out the details and hopefully juice it up a little but this is looking great.
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Yeah it really is. 25 degrees for the high on Monday with our 6-10 inches.
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Looks good for us
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It’s a good run. Most of the members that show a snowstorm include our area, as evidenced by the mean being the highest in our region. That’s what we went to see.
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Euro op has dc below freezing for a long, long, time. When’s the last time we even strung 3-4 below freezing days together?
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Yeah but for me and you in urban heat island hell being on the north end is really good. Euro has us at 24 degrees during the best precip Monday morning.
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Absolutely, my big fear here is the UKIE where the WAA overshoots us and it’s 39 and cloudy while NYC and NJ steal our snow.
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This is a perfect run. Being a tad north of the bullseye 6 days out is always where I want to be at this range.
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It’s a nice hit before the precip issues kick in but the whole thing goes way north. Very very different than the CMC/GFS and even pretty different than the Euro. If the euro does this at 12z I’ll be concerned.
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UKIE does not look suppressed based on the 144 map. Waiting for the better maps on pivotal…
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CMC is a decent light event, 2-4. Id take it and be happy.
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Maybe, I think it looks pretty similar def not a large shift.
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Probably during the cold conveyor belt part of 2016. Most of our recent snows have been 28-32 ish.
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Gosh that is quite beautiful. Nice tropical feed, freezing line through southern Virginia. Pretty much how we draw up a solid moderate event.
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Looks pretty close to 0z to me. I don’t think the outcome would be very different.
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Agree, my bar for the 6th is 2 inches. I think the boom scenario is what the Euro is showing with 4-8 region wide/no temp issues.
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That’s exactly where I wanna see the stripe. That screams good moderate event with no precip issues to me.
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I don’t think people realize how cool that euro run is, pun intended. 4-8 region wide then into the ice box. It has a high of like 16 degrees in dc next Thursday! That’s some serious deep winter stuff with snowpack. Plz god let it be correct.
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6 inches to kick off a cold pattern with the chance for something big as it relaxes is like peak winter for us.
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Euro evolution for the 6th looks a little wonky to me. Still not great agreement for this storm from the GFS/Euro/CMC. Will be interesting to see how it ends up.
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I agree looking at the 500 map, pretty good dig, not totally flat.
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It was good. The major ensemble means show cold and snow. They will lock onto individual threats as we get closer.
