SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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I dunno why you’re so gung ho about “indefinitely” or “6 months”. If we are smart and the federal government does it’s just this can all happen much sooner. It’s our job to demand they do that.
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I don’t buy this. People can go on unemployment, people can get back to work, and hopefully the government can perhaps provide more help like other rich nations do. People can’t come back to life when they die of covid.
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This will be the least shocking thing in the history of mankind. Everyone wants to return to their routine ASAP. Of course people will.
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IMO the evidence does not point at all towards this ending up a degree or two off fromthe flu. Just look at this graph of nyc all cause mortality. Herd immunity is a moot point with this virus. It kills too many. No governor is going to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of their citizens to attain herd immunity.
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I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not. Given that the incubation period + people getting tested can be quite a long time I don’t think 15 days would be enough. I also don’t think most of the places that extended until May 15 are planning to open May 15. I think they’re just adding 1 month increments on a wait and see basis.
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If they can open up successfully that soon then I tip my cap to them. Ohio was also very aggressive and one of the first states to close schools so perhaps they’re in a better position than most. I’m very hopeful they are successful. If they are not and they have new outbreaks that get out of control it will be a large setback.
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NJ with 362 fatalities (highest yet), they appear to be peaking slightly after NYC which makes sense.
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Yes, adding in the probable deaths. But I think @PhineasC was doing the apples to apples comparison of the confirmed deaths that cuomo always updates on. And we don’t have enough day to day data yet on the probable deaths to discern any trends from.
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I’m REALLY hoping we can start getting back to normal by mid to late May. I’m not in a bad situation being a teacher. Stuck in the house with a 4 year old and 1 year old isn’t so bad with decent springtime weather and a steady paycheck honestly. I’m just anxious to get the kids back to their normal lives (seeing friends, seeing family, etc) .
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Indeed. Now hopefully the backside of this curve doesn’t take forever to get down.
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I thought there was one +295 maybe like a week ago
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Of course that’s not all the cases. So far, in most places, only people that are pretty sick are getting tested. That means 30,000 that are/were pretty sick got tested +, which IMO isn’t good.
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Bah, it’s hard to think we’re really going to see fast decreases in hospitalization/death when we keep adding ~30,000 cases a day nationally. Really hoping to see that number drop off soon.
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Gonna be another very bad death total today, CT 197, MI 151, MA 153, NJ 351, IL 80. All at or near their highest.
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Yeah well I think he was shot down because opening up during the peak of an epidemic isn't a good idea. I think everyone thinks that massively scaling up testing is a good idea, and would be on board. And also, for the record, I agree with you. I don't think a lockdown anywhere near another 6 months is feasible.
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We don't have a lot of options. As you can see on this board, people are hungry to get back to life and won't be locked down forever.
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I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months. If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.
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So why can't we adapt and overcome this challenge? Why do have to give up? I don't understand this mentality. Our country has achieved FAR greater things than this. We sent two armies simultaneously to different sides of the globe to defeat 2 different brutal facist regimes in WW2. We can figure out how to test and isolate cases of this virus and quickly if we choose to.
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We can overcome these problems if we decided it was important enough. And to me, 2,000+ people dying a day while we're all locked in our homes is an important enough reason.
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Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea? We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat. We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine. That seems to me like the best option.
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That’s just not how it works. Too high a percentage of our population is old or has comorbidity. It isn’t feasible to do that.
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Well I’m not “welcome to”, actually I’ve been ordered to. And judging by the fact that you’re in this subforum, so have you.
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The average hospitalization rate has been 17%, but of course that sample is biased because mostly only the very sick get tested. I think the framing you’ve presented is incorrect. I don’t believe people can “get on with their lives” in the midst of this epidemic until we limit the spread significantly. We need to limit it at least to the point that our hospitals aren’t in jeopardy of being overwhelmed.
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So are you talking about the probable covid deaths? The numbers everyone’s been going by so far (Until nyc released probable deaths yesterday) have been fatalities with positive tests. I know nyc did an analysis of their average death rate over past years and compared it to this year, so the past years should account for the flu deaths.
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What's also quite worrisome is the idea floating around in the federal government that states right now with lower case counts should reopen quickly. I think that is a mistake and the testing/contact tracing infrastructure should be in place first.
