SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Bigtime weeinie run, probably gonna be 10-12 for DC based on the way the radar looks.

Wow! 6-8 for immediate DC metro! Maybe even better if we can get ratios to work out.

As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area. Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty regarding the placement and location of any banding precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.

Today brought us all one step closer...cmon! Missing a foot of snow in early December 75 miles to our south...wow.

And it’s still ripping

Looks like another push north starting, maybe DC can grab a quick coating.

That death band south of DC looks nice....so cruel.

I hope you’re right but it looks like it’s dead stopped on the last few frames of radarscope.

Northward progress is about done, enjoy it southern folks.

Not kidding but last frame of the radar looks like northern progress stopped. DC snow shield.

According to my RadarScope calculations it has pushed approximately 5 miles north in the last half hour.

I’ll tell you what, if we can get a decent storm in January or early February I’ll be able to forgive Mother Nature for this. But if this season is like last year where the only storm we get is in march when it’s 33 degrees and the sun is vaporizing my snow into a disgusting compacted mess before it even stops snowing...I’m gonna lose it.

This shows it really nicely....

The euro has the 0.2 line less than 40 miles from DC and the 0.6 line is approximately 75 miles from DC.

UKMET with a decent bump north. DC in the 2.5-5mm range now, with the 5mm line not that far away.

Yeah this feels pretty similar to the Jan 17 southern slider, except not as cold up here.

These both can be true. The precip may have bumped north a little but the low is still way south of where we need it to be.

997 low squashed south of where we need it to be at 96.

UKMET offers us nothing, low goes from the panhandle of Florida at 72 to halfway between the east coast and Bermuda at 96.

GFS also with a minor adjustment north, looks like the SS s/w amped heights up a little more and cancelled out the fact that the dumb clipper/confluence/whatever over Canada.

Yeah it actually bumped about 50ish miles north of its previous run.

Yeah that initial piece over Maine got out of the way a little faster but that large blob over Canada looks the same

Let's see if the ICON can lead the way to some positive changes...SS s/w a touch slower and confluence over New England a touch further NE through 66.

96 is better, sharper trough, looks like the confluence is moving out of the way a bit.

wow sure looks a lot faster on these videos, I guess funneling as @Windspeed mentioned.