SomeguyfromTakomaPark

It will reduce the spread which will make it easier to manage.

Yes absolutely. I want things back to normal. Don’t want a second round of outbreaks and restrictive measures.

Yes, this is correct IMO.

If you want to point fingers my advice would be point them at the officials who denied/ignored this threat for months while it was obvious it was coming. If they had taken it seriously initially we wouldn’t be in nearly as bad of a predicament with these lockdowns.

There would be no pivot. That would be awesome and everyone would be happy.

Very good post. Cheers.

I don’t think we would be seeing the hospitalizations and deaths coming down in NY if not for the lockdowns. I also think they very well would’ve vastly outstripped hospital resources without a lockdown. I think in general the lockdowns are having the desired effect of reducing deaths and lowering the burden on the healthcare system. I don’t think that one models initial projection about ventilators was the sole reason we had lockdowns. I think just looking abroad at China, Italy, France, and Spain were the main reasons. I don’t hear much of the supposed talk about locking down until a second wave. What I hear is people discussing much less disruptive waves to bridge us to the vaccine such as staggered schedules at work so people aren’t all in the same building at the same time, limited capacity at restaurants, etc.

I think we actually agree on much of this @phineas. The main points of disagreement I see are that IMO this is not remotely comparable to the flu and that the lockdowns are/were justified.

I agree with you that the way things are going with our federal government not really being interested in testing/contact tracing we probably won’t. But like you are saying the states won’t really have a choice, we can’t stay closed forever and it’s been a long time already.

I think states largely are going to start opening up in some form another by mid to late may/early June no matter what. Some red states obviously may be even sooner. I just want it to be done intelligently so we can avoid being back at square one. I don’t think more than another month of lockdown is possible really.

As usual, straw man. No one is advocating for even of a modicum of this.

I also agree. I think it won’t be feasible to shut down beaches entirely this summer. If you keep them at a reasonable capacity so people can have a little space between groups it seems like beach’s should be ok to open.

Source

Yeah, but that isn’t true anywhere in the US, not even close.

No slowdown, today was 21% positive which is slightly down, need to see that happen day after day.

Yeah he goes on to explain in that thread. Stuff is a little above my pay grade but i think the assumptions about how good the test is is one of the reasons. One of the reasons mentioned in the other thread is the study relied on volunteers, it wasn’t random, so it may be biased to those who were sick and wanted confirmation.

Safe to say the jury is still out on that result from Santa Clara county.

Ok, it’s been fun arguing tonight. Mostly I disagree with this but I’m drinking beer now and am too lazy to continue. But I salute you and @PhineasC for your willingness to go back and forth.

lol every time you’re stuck you go to the same straw man of the fictitious guy in basement, so predictable. If we follow your ideas and go “every man for himself” we’ll be counting bodies in the hundreds of thousands or millions. Yes that is worse.

The thing is we’ve had almost 40,000 deaths, most of which occurred in the last 2-3 weeks. There’s no statistic you can concoct whether it be death rates, hospitalizations, comparisons to other diseases, etc, that can make that go away. It’s a tremendous amount of death and suffering people have had to absorb in a short period of time. As much as you’d like to believe “nyc is fine” as you said last night, it isn’t. End of story.

If we got hit with a meteor and the world was ending phin would like “but the velociraptor death rate was higher in the Cretaceous”.

Sure....all the case counts and deaths are meaningless. Unless we’re talking about bahrain lol.

Another 30k case day.... this isn’t ending anytime soon.

I think they’re adding probable deaths from NYC that occurred over a long period of time. Worldometer added them a few days ago.