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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Most people around here only use the HRRR right before the onset. Late tomorrow night and Sunday morning it will get discussed more. It’s not generally thought to be too useful past like 12 hours or so.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    @Ji pointed this out the other day but for some reason I like the euro pbp without pics, it’s so much more fun for some reason.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We need a good pbp for 18z euro paging @Deck Pic @yoda
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree with this. People think that weather forecasts should always be right. They have no idea of the herculean amount of computing power that it takes to get us to the accuracy levels we're currently at. I don't think the boom/bust thing would've solved the snowquester problem though, pretty much everyone busted on that one.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I know for sure I'm not a particularly intelligent individual, but I can't speak to anyone else.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Ah yes, the ole no ones allowed to have opinions schtick. I feel like I’ve seen this before.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah don’t get me wrong I love capitol weather gang, I think they do a phenomenal job. I’m guessing most cities don’t have something comparable. They post tons of great articles and analysis and everything.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Like my forecast is 30% bust (2-4), 20% boom (8-12) and the middle 50% (4-8). Instead of looking at all that nonsense just tell me 4-8 with low/medium confidence.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I like this idea much better. It conveys the uncertainty without people walking away saying well we’re getting 3-15 inches.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Like I said, I understand all that and reasonable minds can disagree here, but I think it’s overdoing it for one graphic.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I also really don’t like the boom/bust thing. I understand why they think they should do it but IMO it’s overcomplicating it. 90% of people outside of weather boards aren’t going to look at the boom/bust and understand it anyway. Just give us the range you think is most likely.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree, I’d still like to see how EPS handles the CCB.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Like the cold temps on the euro, not too much QPF after the WAA for dc but I’ll still take this all day.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's already game on. Pretty much every piece of guidance targets our region for accumulating snow, and most of them give us a warning level event. We're now well inside of 100 hours. Of course every piece of guidance could take a historically bad dump and we all end up smoking cirrus but that doesn't seem likely.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Thinking historically it's a good idea to mention all the precip types. In coastal storms with uncertain temperature profiles we can see any type of precipitation. UKMET looks great to me, delivers some backend love with cold temps.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That would be pretty cool, I'm sure the bay is warm enough for it given how warm it has been.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I'm in chips fall mode. It's going to be cold this weekend, it's going to snow, it's going to accumulate. I'm not sweating the exact details too much anymore. It's enjoy the lead up to the event time.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There isn't really consensus on the coastal yet IMO. I think it is likeliest that if a deform does happen it'll probably be in our region possibly up through philly and central jersey, but these are notoriously hard to pin down.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Do you have the link to that? I know it was posted yesterday but can't find it.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yessir! Looks to be quite generous with the QPF from the coastal with most of our sub forum with an an inch or more total.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s hard to believe that there will be basically no deform as the euro is showing when most models have it. But it’s also hard to go against the euro this close in!!! Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Gonna be some epic meltdowns today if guidance follows the euro. If the coastal doesn’t pan out that’s fine, I’m just looking forward to a wintry day Sunday even if this all just ends up a 2-4 deal.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    A blend of the Euro/GFS would work pretty nicely though. Yeah that’s a big hit forum wide and still dumping.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    You’re in Philly? DC doesn’t need a north shift lol, EPS bullseyes this area.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah me too, I love storms where it actually feels like winter start to finish and it isn’t drip drop drip drop for 5 hours in the middle. I don’t care too much about the super duper amounts at this juncture given our recent futility. I’d just like some snow that sticks and doesn’t melt instantly. Even if this ends up a 2-4 or 3-6 inch deal I’ll be pretty happy.
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