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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks the same as it has for a while, snow showers with the passage of the arctic front.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Also could be losing some of the total misses the closer we get.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah, true. I think today we set the goal posts. I still like where our sub forum is.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s good for dc metro. Euro shows warning level snow. 6z EPS?
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    What really puts that GFS run over the top is the 2-4 inches we get from the coastal after 0z Tuesday. The euro is a little less enthused with that aspect and gives us the majority of our snow from the overrunning.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Thursday could be one of the colder days since I moved to this region (2009). Euro has highs below 20 for dc. I’ll take the over on that but even a high of 24/25 is pretty remarkable around here.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Normally it’s the other way around, but they both paint a pretty similar picture at this point. It’s not like one of them is way different.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Im not sure why people are so worried about mixing, this looks like a relatively cold event for us. Euro/EPS/UK are all snow.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That looks to me like snow with decent rates and snizzle in dry slot. Don’t think it kills the totals for us if it turns out to correct.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro is very different around day 8, the energy is not buried way west of baja. Not sure if it'll matter but its a significant change.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro is on board with a period of back end stuff, only about 0.1 but it should be fluffy. Maybe an inch or two to freshen everything up around dusk.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UK is good and colder than the GFS and CMC, more Euro like with the temps.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The CMC has a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours around 00z Tuesday. That would be really sweet. Cover everything up again.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It does get up to 32 in DC, def in the GFS camp temp wise whereas the Euro keeps us in the mid to upper 20s.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Oh man it's beautiful. That would be a lot of QPF I would think.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's a good run, has us 30-31 Monday afternoon whereas the Euro has us 26-27. Either one works really. More total QPF that the Euro it seems so they'd probably be similar outcomes.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    6Z Euro is pretty cold for DC still. Looks like mid 20s for most of the time the precip is falling. That + heaviest precip before sunrise + low sun angle should mean we accumulate pretty efficiently.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Excellent —> the 18z north blip is gone. This is a really good map for us. No temp issues, don’t have to sweat the last minute juice up/north creep.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Much more modest shift north than the parent ECMWF. Hopefully it is correct.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro AI has a bomb in the 10 day range from its 12z run. Close to a big miller A for us. Not sure if this was discussed already.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC ensembles look good for our area.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If it keeps ticking north 2-3 more runs we are cooked, it’ll be congrats central PA, NJ, and NYC. We’ll have to see what the EPS is like, and then wait until tomorrow to see whether or not this is a trend or if this will be the northern end of the envelope. My gut says now this is going to be northern end and it won’t tick away from us but we’ll see.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    And it’s cold too, 25 in DC all day.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UKIE way south from 0z and now in line with everything else. We have pretty broad agreement on a good surface low track below us.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s really close! The potential is definitely there.
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