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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. Yeah big parade of rainers after Tuesday. I'm hoping we can have one more nice threat window towards the last week of February before we wave the white flag in the metros.
  2. I guess for up in Philly you might wanna wave the white flag and go 2-4. I don't see why DC and Baltimore should do this at this juncture....
  3. It seems to have gone the other direction actually. Looks drier and further south.
  4. It keeps the boundary in the perfect spot for the duration. This is basically our ceiling right here. This is everything breaking right for the metros.
  5. 60 in Charleston WV, 38 in Philly, but 31 in DC....interesting temperature distribution on the GFS.
  6. This isn't unusual at all. It is much more unusual for there to be great model consensus at 120+ hours. Usually it's under 84 hours where they really converge and 48-72 where you can feel reasonably confident if you're in the bullseye. The axis of heavy snow isn't much more than 100 miles wide with these waves so it's quite hard to pin point. I like where we're at though. I think there is a good chance for what LWX calls a "plowable snow" through the metros.
  7. Hopefully it’s on to something because the other models have a parade of rainers after Tuesday.
  8. LOL at someone saying this dry…absolute firehose outta the gulf.
  9. People that don’t want 6 inches of snow are nuts lol. This is dc. We sometimes go years between 6 inch storms.
  10. GEFS looks good, similar to 6Z. UK looks decent, 3-5 of snow then over to sleet. Confidence that we get something is increasing.
  11. It would also be a lot less fun if we didn’t go nuts over run like this. But yeah we know what the true odds are. I will say though that I think the chance for accumulating snow in dc metro is decent.
  12. Oh wow nice run, we might snag this one yet!!!
  13. lol this model is gonna do it again to me, string me along…
  14. It still likes the Tuesday threat I see, that's like the ICON/UKIE. Hopefully the GFS is on its own with breaking that threat down.
  15. Still a lot of waves to figure out before that one....but the potential for numerous frozen events next week is my takeaway.
  16. 1041 High Pressure over Quebec in a decent spot at the start...
  17. Agree, really didn't want to see everything trend toward the 0z Euro.
  18. Round 1 looks squashed south a bit from 6z. Let's see what round 2 does.
  19. ICON ensembles look good, seems like they support keeping us on the good side of the boundary based on the available maps on Pivotal. Looks like about 1 inch QPF of frozen.
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