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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS is just a monster long duration run without mixing into DC, please lord let it be right.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    at 96 hours on the 6z euro if you toggle the 500 map back to 0z you will see significant changes with the vorts out west. That leads me to believe it is still not really locked in, when I see those 500 maps consistent for 2-3 runs with our western vorts I'll believe it is more locked in.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think the majority of the overrunning will be snow at this point. If it trends far enough that we lose that I’ll be very surprised.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Monster storm, I’ll take the QPF bomb it’s showing with a small sacrifice to sleet at the end. Vast majority of our precip is heavy snow.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Toggling the 850 anomaly map on ai 6Z euro it does seem to have trended warmer.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending. 48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm. Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’m not even gonna be mad if we have to sacrifice some qpf to the sleet gods to get the euro solution. That’s juiced up overrunning on steroids! 15 inches and then a little sleet is ok with me. Of course if we keep trending this way and drive that primary even further north our snow can become more short lived but hopefully we have approached the limit of the amped trending and perhaps trend back a little colder.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Ah the time between the 18z and 0z runs, when @mitchnickposts every crappy model known to man .
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I prefer to wait until some model actually shows mixing to worry about mixing lol.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I’m just saying there’s like 30+ members with really good solutions at this time I’m not sweating the 4 too amped and 4 suppressed or whatever it is. Especially not when pretty much every model supports the EPS.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There are very few amped solutions that really skunk dc, maybe like 4 in there? But even those have the 6 inch line running basically through dc.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol take the fight about hypothetical mixing on future runs to banter if it’s not actual analysis. Euro is perfect.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I am also being asked a million questions, I always hedge, plenty of time to go bigger if you need to. At this juncture I told them I “am reasonably confident” of a 4-8 inch storm but also reminded them that storms have vanished in this time frame before. Then tomorrow or Thursday if the good models are still showing a big storm add some.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS looks fantastic, def trended slightly NW with the precip and a little more QPF from its 0z run. Wiggle room. Probably not a ton of whiffs in the members if I had to guess.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro looks fantastic with the front end thump which is the "easy" part for us typically which is great to see. I don't get expect the details of the phasing/potential coastal influence to be figured out til about Friday morning.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it will, the good thing is even in a less phasey solution we're most likely gonna snow. Very likely we get at least a moderate hit. The extra coastal stuff will take more time to be resolved.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEFS through 90 looks like it would be less suppressive than the op, baja low ejecting faster and less confluence out front.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    yeah we get fantastic overrunning and a tad bit of coastal....if we can get that to capture/tuck that's the big dog scenario.
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