SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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I haven’t been talking about that all, I’m talking about the % positive.
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lol that’s been my point all along
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Correct, as their testing ramped up their % positive went down, hopefully ours will do the same.
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Agree. I made this error about a week ago.
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Hmmm, not sure about that. NYC and NJ saw their % positives drop considerably over time. I would think that the more our mitigation efforts work the lower it would go.
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I’m not really assuming anything. If the % positive dropped as the # of tests went up it would appear to be less widespread. If it remains constant it’s more widespread.
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I think everyone gets the lag, but the idea still stands that the more tests you give, if the outbreak wasn’t very widespread, you’d see the % positive come down.
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Yes, but as you test more and more people if you keep finding the same % positive that’s not good. If the outbreak is slowing as you test more people the % positive should decrease.
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Maryland got over 6,600 test results yesterday and still a 26% positive rate, 1730 new cases. Not good. Need that positive rate to come way down to think the outbreak is slowing.
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Basically what you said. Nothing has changed since the beginning. The goal was always to reduce deaths and serious illnesses and prevent the healthcare system from being overtaxed.
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There were never any shifting goal posts, the only things that shifted were the talking points on the propaganda shows (Fox).
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interesting thread
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Hmmm that’s one way to look at it lol. The present is pretty good compared to most of history IMO. I’m glad I was born when and where I was.
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Yeah I understand that, I just don’t understand what point you’re trying to make.
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What do you mean by that?
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Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown. We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick.
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Wow baby pigeons, never thought about that. Where are the babies?
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Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go.
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DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.
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It almost certainly was IMO. A woman who traveled from DC to Italy in early February came back with classic symptoms had a positive antibody test. Given the amount of international travel that occurs to/from our region it was probably spreading here by early to mid February if not earlier.
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here’s the h1n1 comparison updated
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I don’t think it’s spreading even close to fast enough to achieve herd immunity in a few months anywhere in the US. I think cuomo said R0 was less than 1 in nyc currently. If they just opened back up to business as usual, yes, but with social distancing, no.
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Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?
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Yeah, hospitalizations and ICUs went up today
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interesting, could be relevant for schools if this result pans out
