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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UK is more like 8-16 before a flip for our forum.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it's like a foot plus before mixing issues, so yeah happy to have that as the outcome.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UK also drives a primary to Pitt like CMC but a front end shellacking first.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I generally do not think of the GFS nor the CMC as models that lead the way with trends. I think they are giving us the outer range of outcomes and it I think it fits rather neatly that Euro is between the two. GEFS didn't make any big moves with its depiction of the 850 warmth from 6z to 12z as far as I can tell.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    So those keeping score of the operational models at 12z for DC: ICON: All snow 10 ish inches GFS: All snow 12-18 inches CMC: Snow to Ice 10 ish inches UNCLE UKIE: TBD Dr. No: TBD
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It gives us like 10 inches of snow and we never sniff surface temps above the 20s. So I'll take that as the disaster scenario.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah CMC drives that primary to WV and sleet gets well into PA, still a decent front end thump though.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The 850 warm push on the 12z AI GFS at 18z Sunday and 0z Monday is about the same, noise differences between 6z and 12z. I'm looking for that to stop trending north and hopefully trend back south a little.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS is just a monster long duration run without mixing into DC, please lord let it be right.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    at 96 hours on the 6z euro if you toggle the 500 map back to 0z you will see significant changes with the vorts out west. That leads me to believe it is still not really locked in, when I see those 500 maps consistent for 2-3 runs with our western vorts I'll believe it is more locked in.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think the majority of the overrunning will be snow at this point. If it trends far enough that we lose that I’ll be very surprised.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Monster storm, I’ll take the QPF bomb it’s showing with a small sacrifice to sleet at the end. Vast majority of our precip is heavy snow.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Toggling the 850 anomaly map on ai 6Z euro it does seem to have trended warmer.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending. 48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm. Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’m not even gonna be mad if we have to sacrifice some qpf to the sleet gods to get the euro solution. That’s juiced up overrunning on steroids! 15 inches and then a little sleet is ok with me. Of course if we keep trending this way and drive that primary even further north our snow can become more short lived but hopefully we have approached the limit of the amped trending and perhaps trend back a little colder.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Ah the time between the 18z and 0z runs, when @mitchnickposts every crappy model known to man .
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I prefer to wait until some model actually shows mixing to worry about mixing lol.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I’m just saying there’s like 30+ members with really good solutions at this time I’m not sweating the 4 too amped and 4 suppressed or whatever it is. Especially not when pretty much every model supports the EPS.
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