Moco will probably close Tuesday AND Wednesday AND a delay Thursday. This is a situation where probably cancelling after school activities Tuesday and a day off Wednesday would be sufficient but we all know how they do around here.
Pretty good model agreement now on start time, duration, and QPF. Having a lot of it fall overnight Tuesday will be good, Wednesday morning will be really nice to wake up to.
Yeah big parade of rainers after Tuesday. I'm hoping we can have one more nice threat window towards the last week of February before we wave the white flag in the metros.
It keeps the boundary in the perfect spot for the duration. This is basically our ceiling right here. This is everything breaking right for the metros.
This isn't unusual at all. It is much more unusual for there to be great model consensus at 120+ hours. Usually it's under 84 hours where they really converge and 48-72 where you can feel reasonably confident if you're in the bullseye. The axis of heavy snow isn't much more than 100 miles wide with these waves so it's quite hard to pin point. I like where we're at though. I think there is a good chance for what LWX calls a "plowable snow" through the metros.
It would also be a lot less fun if we didn’t go nuts over run like this. But yeah we know what the true odds are. I will say though that I think the chance for accumulating snow in dc metro is decent.