SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Maryland got over 6,600 test results yesterday and still a 26% positive rate, 1730 new cases. Not good. Need that positive rate to come way down to think the outbreak is slowing.
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Basically what you said. Nothing has changed since the beginning. The goal was always to reduce deaths and serious illnesses and prevent the healthcare system from being overtaxed.
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There were never any shifting goal posts, the only things that shifted were the talking points on the propaganda shows (Fox).
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interesting thread
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Hmmm that’s one way to look at it lol. The present is pretty good compared to most of history IMO. I’m glad I was born when and where I was.
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Yeah I understand that, I just don’t understand what point you’re trying to make.
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What do you mean by that?
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Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown. We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick.
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Wow baby pigeons, never thought about that. Where are the babies?
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Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go.
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DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.
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It almost certainly was IMO. A woman who traveled from DC to Italy in early February came back with classic symptoms had a positive antibody test. Given the amount of international travel that occurs to/from our region it was probably spreading here by early to mid February if not earlier.
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here’s the h1n1 comparison updated
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I don’t think it’s spreading even close to fast enough to achieve herd immunity in a few months anywhere in the US. I think cuomo said R0 was less than 1 in nyc currently. If they just opened back up to business as usual, yes, but with social distancing, no.
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Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?
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Yeah, hospitalizations and ICUs went up today
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interesting, could be relevant for schools if this result pans out
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It's not the policies, it's the epidemic. If we didn't institute stay at homes pretty much everywhere would've been NYC and we'd be in just as bad of an economic hole, if not worse.
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Soon when things are open I think older or susceptible people will still be encouraged to stay home. They will likely do this on their own and probably still only go out for essentials. The harder decision will be once more things are open and their families have been out and about and they have to decide whether or not to go visit the grandkids.
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Just took a look. The only thing I wondered about is he says we have to stop making policy decisions based on hypotheticals. Seems to me like the 60,000 deaths the model was predicting are no longer hypothetical.
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Anyone know what’s up with Brazil? They appear to be on a bad trajectory. Are they on lockdown?
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They have not had the longest stay at home, I believe that was California.
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Yeah but with NY’s continued lower numbers even with NJ’s increase we’ll almost certainly be lower than last Tuesday, so the downward trend continues.
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Well apparently NJ’s lower numbers this weekend were indeed lack of weekend reporting, they are announcing almost 400 new deaths today.
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This makes sense. For all the hullabaloo about how bad the models were it looks like they’ll be pretty accurate.
