Yeah pretty much every model forms a coastal but there is obviously still a big question mark as to where it delivers the biggest impacts. If I was a forecaster I'd be focused on telling the public that some accumulating snow is likely Sunday and Sunday night and the impacts of the coastal on Monday are yet to be determined.
That was a nice event, part 2 really delivered and was quite delayed from part 1. We were on here all morning hemming and hawing about whether it would happen. Had some great rates during the end of the storm and finished with about 11 inches here in takoma park. Would love to replicate that Sunday and Monday.
I think my favorite part of the Euro run is that we have 4-7 inches down region wide with great temps before the coastal is even near our latitude. I really wanna lock up that part 1 and then anything after will be gravy.
Yep, I agree with this, and all of 95 up through Boston has the same issue. 850 and 925 temps look ok for the duration, I'd rather gamble with the surface if I had to choose.
I really like the overnight runs. I'm almost relieved the Euro didn't print out another HECS because that sets the expectations unreasonably high. The EPS being a big hit and the op Euro being a moderate hit but a southern outlier is about as good as you can draw it up for 5ish days out.
So 12z Recap and please correct me if I'm wrong about any of these
GFS/GEFS: light/decent
Para: good
CMC/GEPS: decent
UK: decent
Euro/EPS: ridiculous
Icon: very good
JMA: good
Navgem: good
Am I missing anything? I'll tell you what, I'm glad it's not the GEFS/EPS reversed. The GEFS was holding on to the Thursday storm long after the EPS said it was going to the Carolinas.
I agree with this but I'd say we're getting close to the point where it would be surprising if there wasn't *some* snow for us on Monday/Tuesday. Will it be a big dog? Hopefully, but as you said too early to get fully on that train.
We need @Ralph Wiggum to come on here and tell us why the Euro is too complicated. When he did that this morning for the ICON it printed out a MECS for us on the next run.