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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's already game on. Pretty much every piece of guidance targets our region for accumulating snow, and most of them give us a warning level event. We're now well inside of 100 hours. Of course every piece of guidance could take a historically bad dump and we all end up smoking cirrus but that doesn't seem likely.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Thinking historically it's a good idea to mention all the precip types. In coastal storms with uncertain temperature profiles we can see any type of precipitation. UKMET looks great to me, delivers some backend love with cold temps.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That would be pretty cool, I'm sure the bay is warm enough for it given how warm it has been.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I'm in chips fall mode. It's going to be cold this weekend, it's going to snow, it's going to accumulate. I'm not sweating the exact details too much anymore. It's enjoy the lead up to the event time.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There isn't really consensus on the coastal yet IMO. I think it is likeliest that if a deform does happen it'll probably be in our region possibly up through philly and central jersey, but these are notoriously hard to pin down.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Do you have the link to that? I know it was posted yesterday but can't find it.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yessir! Looks to be quite generous with the QPF from the coastal with most of our sub forum with an an inch or more total.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s hard to believe that there will be basically no deform as the euro is showing when most models have it. But it’s also hard to go against the euro this close in!!! Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Gonna be some epic meltdowns today if guidance follows the euro. If the coastal doesn’t pan out that’s fine, I’m just looking forward to a wintry day Sunday even if this all just ends up a 2-4 deal.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    A blend of the Euro/GFS would work pretty nicely though. Yeah that’s a big hit forum wide and still dumping.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    You’re in Philly? DC doesn’t need a north shift lol, EPS bullseyes this area.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah me too, I love storms where it actually feels like winter start to finish and it isn’t drip drop drip drop for 5 hours in the middle. I don’t care too much about the super duper amounts at this juncture given our recent futility. I’d just like some snow that sticks and doesn’t melt instantly. Even if this ends up a 2-4 or 3-6 inch deal I’ll be pretty happy.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Thats pretty for DC. Still a lot of time for it to move around though so I’m not spiking any footballs.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I dunno, glad this is all hypothetical (for now) and most models aren’t showing this. It doesn’t seem like we’re in danger of losing the whole set up. Most models still target our region. I think a large swath of our region gets 5+ inches.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression. We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. If the 18z euro is right you’ll get a lot of snow!
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That’s quite an encouraging panel for DC metro. I would think we get a bunch more snow after this.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I don't think east is a real concern for us. There haven't been a lot of model runs showing the coastal forming too far east. My concern is something like last night's Euro or this mornings ICON where the coastal doesn't get its act together in time for us which is typically how we fail in a Miller B.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    And the best part is....no torch. We're hanging out around freezing so once the precip comes back in we're money.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Beautiful run, no temp issues......LFG. Double digits all around.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Colder than 00z that's for sure.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    On that link @NorthArlington101 posted it looks like it changes us all back to heavy snow Monday afternoon/evening which hangs around for a while.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS changing everyone back to snow Monday afternoon hahaha
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Noticing that too, surface is torched though and on pivotal weather it shows that as mostly rain, but I am definitely not sweating thermals now.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS is ICON like, decent front end thump and a whiff on the coastal. I'll take my 2-5 inches Sunday and like it if this ends up being correct.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah looks like the coastal impacts are still well north of our region. On to the good models now.
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