SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Yeah I agree. Definitely trending away from anything significant for us. At least it still *should* snow though and at least *some* of the snow *should* fall at temps resembling an actual winter storm. Notice all my qualifiers hahaha.

Supposedly the cold press is taking away our QPF but it's not actually that cold lol. I have no idea.

The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.

Wave 1 precip shield looks healthier on the 18z NAM....hoping it delivers.

Just using the GFS output for the sake of discussion, but I do think we will see some accumulations and not have issues sticking. Much colder airmass than the last storm thank god. Part 1: Temp at 32 for onset of precip tomorrow night 00z. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps around 30. Part 2: Thursday daytime lull, temps in the low 30s, all the roads mostly melt out on their own. Part 3: Temp in the 20s for onset at 06z Friday. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps falling into the lower 20s. If this scenario played out you'd see 1-3 inches in part 1 which would melt and compact a bit during the day Thursday with another 1-3 inches on top of that.

I'm not particularly invested in the arctic, just noting the output on the Euro. If I had to choose though I'd say both hahaha. Gimme a big storm followed by arctic air.

Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day.

If you click through the last 5 Euro runs the trend is definitely not our friend. Trending away from anything particularly significant even in the DC metro. Of course I'd still take a 1-3 type event but it would be nice if this trend stopped now.

Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out.

GFS healthier wave 1 for the whole state of Maryland

2nd wave is 0.1 from northern moco to .5 around fredericksburg.

0.6 QPF around DC, temps a touch cooler than the NAM too.

0.4 to 0.6 right around DC for part 1, temps marginal throughout though.

My bar for this one is 3 inches and cold enough temps that it looks like winter and there aren’t giant puddles in between the snow on my driveway.

Understandable. Hopefully Euro is just setting the southern edge of the possible solutions now and everything doesn't tick tick tick away from us up until game time. My hunch is it doesn't get too much further south but who knows.

I do think there is a higher upside but I also think that second wave still has time to trend away from us if it feels like it. If everything goes right we'd get 6-10, which is why I stopped the top range at 5 because that hasn't happened recently hahaha. And plus, it would be fun to bust low because hey that means it snowed more than I thought it would.

I like the calls. I'm going 2-5 for DC metro.

GFS and RGEM look on track, NAM misses the second wave.

Do you have surface temps? I imagine they’re pretty cold given the orientation of precip.

Goal posts are narrowing quite nicely here, not a lot of disagreement at this point. GFS on the northern end and Euro on the southern with the ICON, CMC, and UKMET in the middle. This is what I like to see in the lead up to an event. Obviously we all know anything could happen but my confidence is gradually increasing that this event is real and we will get a moderate snowfall.

We won't even sniff freezing temps during this multi day event. This run is a work of art for us.

UK looks nice to me, 6 inches and cold temps for DC.

This might be the busiest tracking period in over 5 years. We've got overrunning, a follow up wave, a potential weekend coastal and arctic air, plus long range pattern looking good.

Doesn't look TOO bad based on the TT maps, starts off the upper 30s 18z Wednesday and cools to about freezing by 00z. Workable but of course we know how things go here with marginal temps a lot of the time.