SomeguyfromTakomaPark

If that map verifies it will be a proper bust for basically our entire subforum except DCA lol.

If the NAM is right though we ride that line, keep the heavies going until the flip and then it's basically zip outta here quick anyway. But yeah, like you said, really close on those soundings.

It's 5 inches for DC before sleet, it's pretty much the best case scenario. The heavy precip doesn't even stick around for that long after the changeover anyway.

12k is a beast. 0.5 QPF before sleet for DC. Love it.

Looks very reasonable to me. I hope it verifies!

I was thinking the same thing. Anything is preferable to white rain and 35 degrees. This will almost certainly at least start off white for us. Should be fun.

Do you have a 10:1 map?

00z euro still looked good, my bar here is 2-4, which if it accumulated nicely in a few hours on roads would be my best event of the winter by far.

3 inch sleet bombs are more rare than big snow storms, I wouldn’t get your hopes up for that.

Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could. 3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us. Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie.

Those SV maps don’t differentiate sleet, it just gets counted as 10:1 I believe.

That’s basically been every event down here. Like this setup a lot better.

Yes it would worry me more if the NAM was in line with everything and then started trending away within 48 hours. This run appears to be a slight trend towards the globals with a better push of colder air at higher levels to start. Of course this season you never go wrong choosing the warmest model so there's that too.

Quick flip to sleet, substantial warm nose at 700, but trending better.

Changes incoming on the NAM, high pressure in a better location. better press of cold at 700/850 at 36 hours.

Southern stream moisture will get drawn into this system, and with Canadian high pressure to the north, that provides a good setup for wintry precipitation. There is an anomalous upper- level ridge over the southeastern CONUS, so that does favor a setup for a wintry mix for most areas vs. all snow. Precipitation is most likely to overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A potent jetmax along with southern stream moisture suggests that moderate to heavy precipitation is possible shortly after the onset. This can be seen in most guidance in the form of a strong jetmax at the mid-levels that has origin from the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly where this band of heavier precipitation sets up. Temperature profiles do appear cold enough for snow at the onset for most areas, therefore, significant snowfall is possible before changing over the a wintry mix. The best chance for the heavier snow appears to be across the northwestern half of the CWA (where colder temps aloft will hold on longer, and where most of the guidance has the original band of heavier snow setting up). A dry slot may cause precipitation rates to decrease some Thursday afternoon, but more overrunning Thursday night will cause more wintry precipitation to develop. With warmer air aloft, sleet and freezing rain will become more likely during this time (although snow will hold for a while in the Allegheny Mountains and Potomac Highlands). Significant ice accumulation from freezing rain is possible, especially near and east of Interstate 95 into central Virginia. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire CWA for these reasons.

Borderline all snow for DC

Well that was better than 0z for just about everyone.

Looks a lot more coastal like with the precip shield at 54.

UK is a nice thump with DC hanging on to freezing at 700, 850, and 925 at 18z Thursday. Focuses heaviest precip south of DC.

Teens Friday night, high in the 20s Saturday, single digits for many Saturday night on the GFS. Would be a nice wintry weekend with the fresh snow pack if it played out like this.

GFS does it too, changes Baltimore and north back over to snow at the end.

Yeah, it looks like they must cool off quickly on the next as the precip starts though so I deleted the post because it doesn't seem to be an important variable.

Haven't been following this threat as closely but wow at how much colder on the surface it has trended. GFS keeps the metros below freezing through 12z Friday. As of yesterday 12z it was looking like we might get above freezing by 00z Friday.

Hey where’s @losetoa6 been? I thought he’d be all over this storm.