
SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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The thing is we’re not really “a shift away”. There is no deep cold air. The best model runs had the metros at 34-35. Too warm. Next.
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We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore. Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc. we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple.
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It’s just too warm, no actual cold air to be found when the storm arrives. Story of every storm.
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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
This would be a great start to the season. 2-5 inches in the metro would be fantastic. -
January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
So whats the best case scenario in the immediate metro? It looks like temps never get below 34-35 on most guidance in the cities. Paste bomb? -
This has 37 degrees and rain written all over it for immediate dc area.
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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago. At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years. Is that off the table? Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at? Muchas gracias. -
The reaper needs to visit soon
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Pattern chasing at 15-20 days --> always works out lolololol
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Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers.
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/... Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast. Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non- tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and persisting through Sunday morning. Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning. Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland. Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to 50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for downed trees across the area. A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid 60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the mountains.
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In winter the euro no snow solution would be correct 99 times out of 100.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Bowing segment headed towards Germantown looks like it means business.- 2,785 replies
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Storms are really crawling, the HRRR from this morning was off wrt timing.- 2,785 replies
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hagerstown storm getting a bit of a hook.- 2,785 replies
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
- 2,785 replies
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