SomeguyfromTakomaPark

We are basically a modeling error away from a HECS at 120 hours according to the Euro, and if u ask me it’s in the preferred direction for a phasing event like this. It’s fine with me. There are a million alternatives that are worse.

I agree, this feels like that medium range time slot where sometimes they lose it and bring it back to what they were originally showing in the 6-7 day range. We’ll see. I’ll be happy if we can get a cold accumulating snow.

If the euro looks like GFS we are gonna have to do a temporary pause on posting like when they turn the stock market off lololol.

@Solution Mansign here now for ICON

No it’s lower resolution, it takes like hours upon hours of a super computer just to do the euro run once, to run 50 permutations they have to lower it I think just because of computing power limits.

In fairness the 114 panel of the euro IS folks worthy.

The operational Euro making a large shift with the track of the storm tells me we should rely a little heavier on the ensembles until it steadies. But I like how each operational perturbation the last few days still gets us a MECS.

This is a really beautiful progression for us. Let's see if the EPS agrees.

Do you have this wind product for the euro by any chance?

Folds like a cheap suit. As usual the euro is slapping all these junk models around lol. Now that it’s finished with the GFS and ICON its AI cousin is next.

I’m setting the bar higher than last week already. Last week we knew it was barely cold enough and we’d be talking about 6ish hours of snowfall that would melt the next day. Very different setup here. I’m thinking double digits or bust here to be honest. If it doesn’t happen oh well it’s almost spring anyway but I’m going all in here.

lol that should calm your nerves about moving towards the ICON right? That’s beautiful.

I know it’s our tendency to do that but if you think about the big picture we are in a pretty great spot. This is where we want to be. 5 days out from the storm, arctic air in place, euro showing a bomb, gfs slowly figuring it out. Good ensemble support from EPS.

I dunno man of course it COULD do a rug pull but it’s like 120 hours away with DC and Philly in the middle of a giant band of snow. Pretty good spot. Def not worried about whatever the icon is doing lol.

The trend in the euro appears to be a large snowstorm

So much wiggle room. It’s perfect. Don’t have to sweat small shifts.

Yeah that’s like an 18 inch blizzard in the metros with a foot plus across the whole region. I need @Solution Man sign here please image!!

The real problem is not the GFS, we all know usually when it’s on an island it stays there a while then gradually goes towards the others. The problem is that the Euro spit out pretty much the top shelf solution. Hard to go up from 12z, so people will be panicking over a “step back” if it shows a clean 10-15 inch storm for us. Of course it’s possible the Euro keeps some version of that solution for 21 straight runs but it isn’t likely. We have to be ready for the almost inevitable wobbling and not get totally on tilt.

He has been really good with identifying legit windows and threats. I take him more seriously than anyone really. Ever since the PSU storm in 2011 lol.

I dunno man euro op has been really good this winter IMO. And the big players have already taken the field at 120 and our storm is well on its way to forming. Not saying we can’t get a big rug pull, but I feel pretty good seeing that 6Z euro run.

6Z out on TT and boy was that op about to destroy us. Like u said looked as good as 0z if not better. I’m happy to have the op trending better at 144.

Seeing a bunch of snow to our SW seems good to me.

Did anyone even post the 6Z EPS? Was it that bad? The 6Z euro op at 144 looked fantastic.

It just seems like another piece of guidance, I think with our snow events this year the euro has definitely done better than the AI especially the closer in we get. I haven’t seen a pattern of the op trending towards it or anything like that. If anything I think it’s the reverse.

This is a long practiced routine lol. Some think it’s funny (I do).