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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    https://x.com/matthewcappucci/status/1789471292019626407?s=46&t=qDiZ4OLDWEHuCHpMlLMkLQ
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Got it, so it’s like the NAO, need that bad boy to tank.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    What is bz and where do u track it
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks like tomorrow is a better chance
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    https://x.com/nwsswpc/status/1789411152566395366?s=46&t=qDiZ4OLDWEHuCHpMlLMkLQ
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Is it over? Any chance tonight?
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Wow ohio is looking good! NY state gonna get largely screwed though.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro and GFS ops now both have precip for Erie/Cleveland. That was gonna be my target. I'd hate to drive hours out there with 2 young kids and have clouds. I'm hoping for either a clear cut sunny day forecast or clear clouds. 50/50 is gonna be a tough call.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEFS skunks the entire path basically, socked in the whole way across CONUS.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We’re done, final grade, B- because we had a week of actual winter.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ll call it a quarter inch
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    New HRRR is dry as a bone, 0.14 QPF for dc.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Blend everything and it’s an easy 2-4. Not sure what the handwringing is about here, this was never supposed to last more than a few hours. Hard to get 4-6 inches that quick with a clipper type system in dc but still it’s not out the question.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Silly question - when you guys know a new model run has dropped do you check the model first or the thread first? 44/18
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Acceptable, would be nice to have some high pressure to the north but beggars can't be choosers.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Wow almost 2 inches of QPF in like 6 hours lol on this storm.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS 0.6 qpf for DC
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This model has done a terrible job with just about every event this winter.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Another great run, almost 5 inches in dc on the 10:1 map.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah, maybe, but whenever in reent memory we were waiting on a 10+ degree temp drop in order to get snow without any arctic air nearby, the warmer models are usually right.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    skunks the entire 95 corridor up through NYC and boston, warm and not much snow.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We will see but in pretty much all of the marginal events like this in recent memory without CAD it usually works to pick the warmer models.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Still too warm for immediate metro but N/W with elevation this could be something. But red flag is the Euro is about 5 degrees warmer than the RAP at 12z. Euro has DC at 39 and RAP at 34.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    So all those EPIC h5 looks really have dried up? Or is the good pattern actually happening it's just not going to produce snow?
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