SomeguyfromTakomaPark

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out. 

Looks pretty close to 0z to me. I don’t think the outcome would be very different. 

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Heck I’d be happy with 2-4” it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Just let it snow! 

Agree, my bar for the 6th is 2 inches.  I think the boom scenario is what the Euro is showing with 4-8 region wide/no temp issues. 

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. 
 

That’s exactly where I wanna see the stripe.  That screams good moderate event with no precip issues to me. 

I don’t think people realize how cool that euro run is, pun intended. 4-8 region wide then into the ice box.  It has a high of like 16 degrees in dc next Thursday!  That’s some serious deep winter stuff with snowpack.  Plz god let it be correct. 

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Me thinks we're gonna have to wait for that block to relax some...after whatever we get from early next week. It kinda how we roll...we're more of a relax climo 

6 inches to kick off a cold pattern with the chance for something big as it relaxes is like peak winter for us. 

Euro evolution for the 6th looks a little wonky to me.  Still not great agreement for this storm from the GFS/Euro/CMC.  Will be interesting to see how it ends up. 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I choose to believe it would be more than just the southern portion 

I agree looking at the 500 map, pretty good dig, not totally flat. 

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Anybody else confused if today was a good bad or ugly day of 12z model runs?

It was good. The major ensemble means show cold and snow.  They will lock onto individual threats as we get closer.  

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS; lot of hits here too....time will tell...

 

 

Wow fantastic mean.  Great period incoming. Waiting for @NorthArlington101to tell us why it won’t work. 

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm.

This looks pretty good actually.  I’ll take slightly south of us at 200 hours. 

Thump to dry slot basically

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mean, effing hell..

Wow!!! What a signal.  We’re going to see a lot of fun op runs the next few days methinks. 

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the dryslot killed things south of US 50. Damascus had 24" but Takoma Park had only 5".

I recall petworth dc to takoma park getting around 10 inches in that one with some mixing/dryslot. 

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just got back from being stuck on I-95 for 6 hours. What an epic run of the GFS. Wow.

It took me almost 8 hours to get from dc to ny yesterday…wtf is going on??!! But yes epic run. 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!

 

 

That’s really good for this range 

This stretch really seems to have legs.  Plz god let us score a few storms. 

Beautiful miller A as @CAPEwas pointing out was being suggested by the EPS.  Lets gooooooo. 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Admittedly I may not have a clear understanding of the dynamics. I think I could be seeing it as "the colder the push the more it's suppressed", but I'm gonna guess I'm oversimplifying that?

It’s possible it’s always a risk.  But the means look pretty good and that’s the best tool at this range. 

I know it’s a euro op run at range but it has highs in the single digits for dc at the end of its run.  It’s gonna be cold. 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather.

it is good seeing the median get higher, though.

That looks pretty good, I like how our sub forum is not on the southern edge if the snow.  

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usually by now as we are tracking a decent pattern he is already posting about the back end of the pattern and thaw.....so we've avoided that trainwreck at least.

Last year the pattern would still be 14-21 days away.  Now we are flipping to a colder regime almost for sure in about a week. 

Cold January incoming. EPS with strongly negative 2m temp anomalies from the 1st through the 11th.  That’s our prime window right there.  Still have the low sun angle so we can actually accumulate during the day. 

Are we already at the part where our drool worthy 500 long range looks will obviously produce nothing? Or are people just being impatient?

EURO AI actually looks pretty interesting for Friday, of course it's too warm though.  But perhaps if we get a little deeper low we can also get a little cooler temps.

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs was closer at 12z and looks like cmc about to lay the hammer. 
 

well it looked good up to hour 156 then it went to dogwater lol

Gonna go boom after 200 hours it looks.  It should at least be close.