SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Totally unrelated to the current drama but I did a marathon yesterday.  As some of you know I lost my wife last summer and now I’m a single parent of two small kids.  Running has been the thing that keeps me sane.  There were no real races to do so I just did my own marathon at east Potomac park. I did it totally unsupported and used my car as the aid station. I’ve never done a race before but this was really fun!  I want to do a real one now!

Just now, NovaWahoo said:

See central TN. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif

Would be cool if some of that streamed over the apps, all I want is like an hour of snow that sticks lol.  

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

TWC claims that band is heading right for our area. 

I know radar extrapolation rarely works out but ITS ALL WE HAVE LEFT. 

Not sure if this will end up being meaningful in any way but neither NAM or HRRR appears to have initialized with that band of precip in Tennessee. 

Edit: newest HRRR has it but it looks much weaker than it does in real life.

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

About 0.8” or 0.9” of sleet.  Ready for spring in DC.

No question. Pathetic event for the most part pathetically modeled by the globals.  Waste of time hahaha but oh well I got to look at some pretty digital snow. 

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. 

It really has felt like a the models have been gaslighting us more than usual this year.  As of like 36 hours the GEFS was trending better every run and had pink down into the metro areas. 

Just now, NattyBo said:

Super bright in Rockville. Guess the back edge is here.

Yep. Here too. Good riddance to this pathetic event and my 90 seconds of heavy snow. 

32 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

There must be an upsloping factor or something because you're due east from me and it seems you're always colder/snowier. 

It lasted for about 1 minute lol and then went back to sleet. 

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Agreed. I had to try to keep it funny.

Edit: Should be done by about noon.

I'd be amazed if the heavies last til noon.  My guess is closer to 11 for most of us if not sooner. 

Just now, T. August said:

Was legit ripping fatties for 5 minutes. Now hella sleet.

Same for me.  I had like a minute of heavy snow now it's back to intermittent parachutes.  Oh well.  Back edge racing up at least I got to see some fatties before this wraps up.  Even though I don't love sleet still a winter event that is better than 35 and white rain.  

Switched to heavy snow in Takoma Park too, very cool.  Would love to keep this going for a while. 

So what are we thinking?  An hour or two more of the heavy stuff?  NAM 3k has the heavy stuff outta here 11am-12am and the HRRR maybe an hour after that.  

Absolutely pounding sleet now.  

I dunno why anyone would like sleet.  It sleets hard and then you have nothing to show for it.  At least freezing rain makes the trees look pretty. 

Snow mixing in Takoma park, or so it looks from inside. 

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

My sister lives in Ohio on the border of WV and Kentucky...think just west of Huntington.. she's at 4" which is more than she expected im guessing this thing went more NW

So the NAM from a few days ago as our far NW outliner wins again.  Sheesh.  

so I guess the GFS para wasn’t right hahaha? Sounds like a lot of sleet outside.  

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. 

It looks like some oscillating between sleet/snow in the heavy precip.  Should be fun for sure. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

WTH is this sounding?

Looks like almost sleet if not sleet to me, but close. 

Little Rock has a snow depth of 14 inches so my bar for this storm just became 14 inches. 

Hey it’s actually in the 20s before a storm! 29/16. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

18z GFS drier than 12z

And warmer too for DC. 850s knocking on the door at 12z.

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Something is wrong with the algorithm output...I probably shouldnt have posted lol...Toss

BTW is it nice for you to be out of urban heat island hell?  I remember all your obs from past events basically 40 degrees and sad hahaha.  Do you take some trips up to Canaan at all?

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Congrats Ji

If that map verifies it will be a proper bust for basically our entire subforum except DCA lol. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Soundings are so tight.  At 8 am tomorrow morning, I'd much rather be at Randy's house than say Old Town.  by 10 am, total capitulation.

If the NAM is right though we ride that line, keep the heavies going until the flip and then it's basically zip outta here quick anyway.  But yeah, like you said, really close on those soundings.