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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    6Z Euro is pretty cold for DC still. Looks like mid 20s for most of the time the precip is falling. That + heaviest precip before sunrise + low sun angle should mean we accumulate pretty efficiently.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Excellent —> the 18z north blip is gone. This is a really good map for us. No temp issues, don’t have to sweat the last minute juice up/north creep.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Much more modest shift north than the parent ECMWF. Hopefully it is correct.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro AI has a bomb in the 10 day range from its 12z run. Close to a big miller A for us. Not sure if this was discussed already.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC ensembles look good for our area.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If it keeps ticking north 2-3 more runs we are cooked, it’ll be congrats central PA, NJ, and NYC. We’ll have to see what the EPS is like, and then wait until tomorrow to see whether or not this is a trend or if this will be the northern end of the envelope. My gut says now this is going to be northern end and it won’t tick away from us but we’ll see.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    And it’s cold too, 25 in DC all day.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UKIE way south from 0z and now in line with everything else. We have pretty broad agreement on a good surface low track below us.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s really close! The potential is definitely there.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I like the run, a surface low track from Kentucky to coastal Carolina works well for us.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    North is of course our biggest failure mode. That’s why it’s nice to have the op euro on the southern end of the envelope right now.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    National Blend of all models looks really good, with dc in the middle of the stripe around 5 inches. Then you have the EPS striping us and the Euro with the stripe just south of us. That’s about as good a consensus as we can ask for showing a solid moderate event with no precip type issues. Another day or two to iron out the details and hopefully juice it up a little but this is looking great.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it really is. 25 degrees for the high on Monday with our 6-10 inches.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks good for us
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s a good run. Most of the members that show a snowstorm include our area, as evidenced by the mean being the highest in our region. That’s what we went to see.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro op has dc below freezing for a long, long, time. When’s the last time we even strung 3-4 below freezing days together?
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah but for me and you in urban heat island hell being on the north end is really good. Euro has us at 24 degrees during the best precip Monday morning.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Absolutely, my big fear here is the UKIE where the WAA overshoots us and it’s 39 and cloudy while NYC and NJ steal our snow.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is a perfect run. Being a tad north of the bullseye 6 days out is always where I want to be at this range.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s a nice hit before the precip issues kick in but the whole thing goes way north. Very very different than the CMC/GFS and even pretty different than the Euro. If the euro does this at 12z I’ll be concerned.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UKIE does not look suppressed based on the 144 map. Waiting for the better maps on pivotal…
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC is a decent light event, 2-4. Id take it and be happy.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Maybe, I think it looks pretty similar def not a large shift.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Probably during the cold conveyor belt part of 2016. Most of our recent snows have been 28-32 ish.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Gosh that is quite beautiful. Nice tropical feed, freezing line through southern Virginia. Pretty much how we draw up a solid moderate event.
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