SomeguyfromTakomaPark

I think the icon is the only one that gets us under 10 inches.

Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing, trusting the GFS when it’s on an island…we know how that goes. But long way to go with this one not gonna rule anything out.

I think in this setup it's gonna come in hot and heavy and the vast majority of our QPF will be before 18z on Sunday and maybe even before 15z. Without a 2 part coastal thing thats usually how it goes. Just some light stuff from these panels on.

I think I will enjoy this event for the following reasons even if the lower end ideas end up right: 1) We haven't had a region wide heavy snowfall in (10?) years. Everyone in this forum is likely to get 4-6 inches of snow even if things go very haywire. 2) It will start out cold and we will likely wake up to heavy snow on Sunday without having to wait for cold air. 3) It's going to be insanely cold after and it will have a true deep winter feel. 4) Plain rain doesn't appear to be on table whatsoever.

That's still a lot of snow, 6 inch line way down south of us. It's gonna snow!

I think a met posted recently that the Euro surface temps are "broken" and have been way too cold.

I actually think most of the damage is done by this point.

EC AIFS very steady run to run as usual, small changes, but still suggests mostly snow for us.

As others have pointed out, UK is effectively all snow with the majority of QPF as snow. 12z ops for DC CMC: 10 ish inches of snow to ice GFS: 10-18 inches all snow ICON: 10 ish inches all snow UK: Snow to brief ice, 10-18 inches Of course waiting on the Euro. This is a good place to be. Everything is showing an event where the majority of our QPF is snow.

UK is more like 8-16 before a flip for our forum.

Yeah it's like a foot plus before mixing issues, so yeah happy to have that as the outcome.

UK also drives a primary to Pitt like CMC but a front end shellacking first.

I generally do not think of the GFS nor the CMC as models that lead the way with trends. I think they are giving us the outer range of outcomes and it I think it fits rather neatly that Euro is between the two. GEFS didn't make any big moves with its depiction of the 850 warmth from 6z to 12z as far as I can tell.

So those keeping score of the operational models at 12z for DC: ICON: All snow 10 ish inches GFS: All snow 12-18 inches CMC: Snow to Ice 10 ish inches UNCLE UKIE: TBD Dr. No: TBD

It gives us like 10 inches of snow and we never sniff surface temps above the 20s. So I'll take that as the disaster scenario.

Yeah CMC drives that primary to WV and sleet gets well into PA, still a decent front end thump though.

Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z.

The 850 warm push on the 12z AI GFS at 18z Sunday and 0z Monday is about the same, noise differences between 6z and 12z. I'm looking for that to stop trending north and hopefully trend back south a little.

GFS is just a monster long duration run without mixing into DC, please lord let it be right.

I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome.

at 96 hours on the 6z euro if you toggle the 500 map back to 0z you will see significant changes with the vorts out west. That leads me to believe it is still not really locked in, when I see those 500 maps consistent for 2-3 runs with our western vorts I'll believe it is more locked in.

Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends.

The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification.

More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there.

But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise.