NAM starting at 9z will get a solid base down before sun angle is a factor at all. Will be a relatively high impact event with cold road temps going in if the NAM is right.
This event will be a dilemma for the districts around dc, light snow but right at the morning rush. Some districts like MCPS already had 2 snow days this week.
An upper level disturbance will push in behind a cold front
Thursday night into Friday and the two will bring a sufficient
opportunity for more accumulating snowfall later Thursday night
and into the early half of the day on Friday. Most of the snow
accumulation will take place Friday during the morning with
only the higher elevations seeing any accumulation before 12Z
Friday. All areas have an opportunity to see snow accumulation.
6z ICON looks decently moist. Would be nice to get this precip in closer to 4-5 am to maximize the accumulations. If it comes in closer to 7-9 am it’ll be lower impact.
I’m not too greedy, of course if a warning level snow is on the table I’ll take it but this hasn’t really ever looked like that. Pack refresher before a fresh arctic blast.
I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing. If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno.