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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Add the UK to the list of models that says don't worry about being too amped. Edit: It actually trended south from 6z.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The probability of a 4 inch snow in DC went from 32%to 35% and the probability of a 1 inch snow went from 72% to 100% from 6z to 12z.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I dunno, I still see like 15+ that give me accumulating snow. I don't have access to the members though to toggle with 6z but I'll roll the dice with that.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    They sure do! Even a tad better with the cold push toggling the 18z Sunday temps.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Temps in DC from the big 3 globals for 18z Sunday GFS: 29 EURO: 30 CMC: 38
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It looks tantalizingly close for threat 2 still. Not outta the game by any means for that one.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS does not support the RGEM idea. RGEM has the low in PG county Sunday afternoon. The GFS has it around Lewes Delaware, and the Euro about 100 miles off Ocean city. I would lean more towards the right side of that envelope especially with the RGEM being past 48 hours.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS looks really good for DC. Heavy Snow 15z Sunday freezing line has blown well through.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Definitely tossing this. Every single time when I have rode the RGEM as the snowiest outlier I got burned.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I am not worried about the amped solutions (yet). Usually we don’t see the euro swing big inside this range. It would be more surprising for the Euro/EPS to shit the bed from this range than the CMC/RGEM/FV3.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah this looks great. We’re getting snow before an arctic blast and there’s snow on the ground. As good as it gets here.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We probably had almost 0.5 in takoma park but we got lucky and hit like 3 of those blobs.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    About .3 inches here but really coated everything even the roads a bit. Looks nice. This year is built different than the last few.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Dumping under those yellows in dc. SN+
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Incoming for NW dc
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    You can just click on the map to see them. But I wouldn’t be sweating the thermals from the most amped model at this time. If the models converge on a solution like this then yeah we’ll be parsing them in detail.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Don’t think that’s true, radar looks good.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good amount of stuff spilling over the mountains. On track for a little something.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It bumped everything a tad north and juiced up QPF, it’s either going to add a nice event to its mid Atlantic resume or look very silly showing the same wrong thing 30+ runs in a row without wavering.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Agree, it’s basically 0.2 on a mean 84 hours out centered right over our forum. Pretty good stuff.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol dude I think u need a new hobby or maybe move to Maine/adirondacks/alaska. You can reenact the rev war at fort Ticonderoga and the snow will stick and you’ll be happy.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah with the distribution at least, not as much QPF as GEFS. I'd post images but it won't let me anymore.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS does not support weak and dry, it looks more like the GEFS.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks like the goal posts now are the CMC amped and the Euro weak and dry. During the 1/6 storm everything slowly moved towards the Euro. We'll see what happens this time. There is pretty good support for a middle ground solution between the GFS/GEFS/EURO AI/ICON so I'd probably hedge towards that.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEFS looks really nice for this.
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