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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    No need to sweat euro qpf, nothing has really changed for dc metro. Just the typical run to run variance. This has always looked like a 2-4 ish event with some boom potential upside. I still think the northern burbs probably get their 3-6.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Just coming back down to earth, coming into consensus with everything. I don’t think 6+ for the majority of Maryland was ever going to happen. Still a great run for pretty much all of us.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Love how far south that 2-4 zone goes. Lotta wiggle room.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yes, why not?
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Don’t trust that the euro, or anything, will nail that skinny band placement, but I love seeing it hand wave the the temp issues….illustrates the boom potential even into the metros.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Probably too close in for the GEFS but it shifted the 4 inch snow probabilities southeastward.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Maybe it's just cause things have been working for us this winter the vibes feel different. If we were looking at this scenario in other years I'd be doom posting about our sloppy inch. It'll be interesting to track the progress of the cold front in real time tomorrow. If I wake up tomorrow and it's 12 degrees in Pittsburgh we should be good, if it's 25 we're probably cooked.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It seems like guidance is finally converging now and it puts DC right on the edge. Big boom/bust potential with the forecasting but I think DC gets snow even in the bust scenario. I'd go 2-4 for DC proper now but I would not be surprised to see us end up with 1-2 or even 5-6.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Maybe. This winter seems to be built a little different though. It’s only 36 now at my house, it’s not 52 waiting for a 20 degree drop.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Oh wow 6Z looks good for moco up to Baltimore. Let’s lock this in.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I dunno I’m not too worried. It might trend west but not far enough we get shut out I don’t think. Just want some accumulating.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol they were talking “full euro cave to rgem” in the New England forum and I was thinking we got rained on. I guess they were referencing further in the storms development. That looks fantastic for us, thanks for posting.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    3K starts the snow around 7am and doesn’t wind it down til after 7pm, would be a nice full snowy day.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If the Euro AI puts out like 30 consecutive steadfast runs only to be clowned by the RGEM a few days before that model is going in the doghouse. But seriously I just can’t get on board with these juicier more amped GFS and RGEM when the euro is showing something else. I’ve seen this movie before.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Was downtown today and the tidal basin and the Potomac were all frozen. Very cool. Been a while since I’ve seen that.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. That’s a perfect light event with upside to moderate. No temp issues. Followed by arctic. Somebody get me my finest pen to sign that!!!
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think we’re going to get accumulating snow in dc metro. I don’t buy the RGEM/CMC complete shutout. I think it’s possible it trends away from us a little and we end up 1-2 but I don’t think we get shutout.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I mean I think in any marginal temp set up of course fall line and NW does better but I see no reason to punt this event yet. Even if it’s just an inch or two I’d love that before the Siberian express.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Is everyone really giving up on an event the euro/gfs/3k are showing as cold and all snow for dc because of the icon and rgem? Of course it’s possible it plays out like that but I wouldn’t bet the house on those two models.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro has 7 degrees in DC for 1pm Wed. That would be absurd.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good look for New Orleans.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Absolutely, I'd go 2-4 for DC metro and 3-6 north and west. With yesterday's 0.5 I'm now at 10.9 inches for the season. This Euro run would get me to climo basically. Considering we're not even halfway through winter and it's been really cold, this is all good. Enjoy it folks!!!
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro looks fantastic. Snow, no temperature issues. Toss the RGEM/GGEM.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Through 48 this not look at all GGEM like. Colder than previous runs, 25 at 18z Sunday in DC.
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