SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Both the Euro and GFS are very acceptable. The forecast for dc reads like a forecast for anchorage Alaska. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Snow and sleet. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast.

QPF bomb, u love to see it. Let’s get like 1.2 down in dc before the ice.

If the euro is right about the freezing rain, foot of snow in dc and then a bunch of freezing rain and then into the ice box…this region will be shut down. Is its sleet/frz rain algo usually good?

Looks like a hold with mostly just noise difference, thought it was coming in colder but just a bit slower. Good run, double digits in dc.

6Z euro looks to be colder too.

Toggling the 850 anomaly it looks like a noticeable shift colder.

How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference.

Very amped, we would not love that.

Yeah just bleeding each run but like I said, moderate to perhaps still heavy snow and then ice without any plain rain is still fun. I meant those big boy runs were getting away from us on the coastal plain.

Absolutely, once you say welp it’s gonna be a wintry cold ass mess I’ll just enjoy that it’s More fun.

Really continuous trending the wrong way now, if we can stop the bleeding at 0z and preserve our 6-10 in dc metro id be pumped. But usually these keep bleeding north. But you never know!

Moderate snow storm to ice and then extreme cold is still awesome I am not being a Deb but that’s how it looks now for dc metro. Of course it can trend back colder but usually it seems like they don’t.

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think. Gonna be fun either way.

I think the icon is the only one that gets us under 10 inches.

Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing, trusting the GFS when it’s on an island…we know how that goes. But long way to go with this one not gonna rule anything out.

I think in this setup it's gonna come in hot and heavy and the vast majority of our QPF will be before 18z on Sunday and maybe even before 15z. Without a 2 part coastal thing thats usually how it goes. Just some light stuff from these panels on.

I think I will enjoy this event for the following reasons even if the lower end ideas end up right: 1) We haven't had a region wide heavy snowfall in (10?) years. Everyone in this forum is likely to get 4-6 inches of snow even if things go very haywire. 2) It will start out cold and we will likely wake up to heavy snow on Sunday without having to wait for cold air. 3) It's going to be insanely cold after and it will have a true deep winter feel. 4) Plain rain doesn't appear to be on table whatsoever.

That's still a lot of snow, 6 inch line way down south of us. It's gonna snow!

I think a met posted recently that the Euro surface temps are "broken" and have been way too cold.

I actually think most of the damage is done by this point.

EC AIFS very steady run to run as usual, small changes, but still suggests mostly snow for us.

As others have pointed out, UK is effectively all snow with the majority of QPF as snow. 12z ops for DC CMC: 10 ish inches of snow to ice GFS: 10-18 inches all snow ICON: 10 ish inches all snow UK: Snow to brief ice, 10-18 inches Of course waiting on the Euro. This is a good place to be. Everything is showing an event where the majority of our QPF is snow.

UK is more like 8-16 before a flip for our forum.

Yeah it's like a foot plus before mixing issues, so yeah happy to have that as the outcome.