SomeguyfromTakomaPark

AI Ensembles did tighten up the northern edge a bit, perhaps it lost some of the more northerly solutions. But it did increase total qpf in dc.

Really beautiful look on the euro. That’s just a huge area of cold powder and my gut says that it’ll probably adjust a bit further north towards the AI’s. Finally we may have something that gets the whole region.

Couldn’t be in a better spot really, it really seems like everything is trending to the ai models. And I for one welcome our machine overloads when they give us snow like this!

How are we looking for wind? Pretty strong high up there and pressure gradient, should be breezy you would think.

Models going nuclear at this range is what we want of course. We know the 20-30 inch kuchie maps are for fun only this far out, but I’m starting to believe we get a major winter storm now.

CMC precip distribution looks similar to the AI’s

This is gonna be a gaudy clown map for dc geeeeze

Pretty big run to run change on the GFS at 500, fair to say it isn’t really locked in yet.

I mean yes, of course the pattern looks to be very cold. But all these years of many many many 35 degree rainstorms has taught me to be wary until we are very close.

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain.

Just blend all guidance and our region is the cross hairs. We may finally get the region wide storm we’ve needed for about a decade.

lol I hope you’re right but I won’t feel comfortable until about hour 72 or 48 after last years Feb debacle.

Back edge in New Mexico is a good thing

AI GFS is less suppressed than its 12z run.

That was the one that trended north in the last few days. Perfect 6 inches for dc if I remember correctly.