SomeguyfromTakomaPark

The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification.

More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there.

But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise.

Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level.

I think the majority of the overrunning will be snow at this point. If it trends far enough that we lose that I’ll be very surprised.

Monster storm, I’ll take the QPF bomb it’s showing with a small sacrifice to sleet at the end. Vast majority of our precip is heavy snow.

Toggling the 850 anomaly map on ai 6Z euro it does seem to have trended warmer.

Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending. 48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm. Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.

I’m not even gonna be mad if we have to sacrifice some qpf to the sleet gods to get the euro solution. That’s juiced up overrunning on steroids! 15 inches and then a little sleet is ok with me. Of course if we keep trending this way and drive that primary even further north our snow can become more short lived but hopefully we have approached the limit of the amped trending and perhaps trend back a little colder.

Ah the time between the 18z and 0z runs, when @mitchnickposts every crappy model known to man .

I prefer to wait until some model actually shows mixing to worry about mixing lol.

Yeah I’m just saying there’s like 30+ members with really good solutions at this time I’m not sweating the 4 too amped and 4 suppressed or whatever it is. Especially not when pretty much every model supports the EPS.

There are very few amped solutions that really skunk dc, maybe like 4 in there? But even those have the 6 inch line running basically through dc.

lol take the fight about hypothetical mixing on future runs to banter if it’s not actual analysis. Euro is perfect.

I am also being asked a million questions, I always hedge, plenty of time to go bigger if you need to. At this juncture I told them I “am reasonably confident” of a 4-8 inch storm but also reminded them that storms have vanished in this time frame before. Then tomorrow or Thursday if the good models are still showing a big storm add some.