SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around. Just need to time something up. What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days. But we all know how good models are from that far out. If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast. It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms. When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull.

Yeah as others have noted if every op run doesn’t show an HECS for their backyard they panic, but yeah we have the pattern in good shape going into prime climo so let’s just see if we can something to hit.

I like the potential around day 10 on the EPS, 0z euro op close to something too.

Last year the EPS busted so hard on that February storm and that was like 5 days out, I gotta get something to within like 2-3 days to feel any level of confidence.

The last few years we have seen the good looks on the models like this and they’ve been head fakes, or they disappear after brief non producing period. Let’s see if we can actually cash one in.

We don’t sweat thermals on 12 day away fantasy storms anyway, get the pattern right, get a storm. First things first.

Very nice event, looks like a general 6-8 here in Yorktown.

Filling over rockland and orange too now

5 inches in Yorktown, moderate snow. Hoping we can fill in a bit.

If you believe the 0z hrrr,yes

HRRR has the dry slot filling in and gives northern westchester 0.49 QPF after 1z. Perhaps it’s smoking crack but I pray it’s not.

3.5 inches in yorktown, these dark green/light yellow are 1 inch/hour on the nose, the yellow blobs are 2 inch/hour.

3.25 inches in Yorktown after lull, back to solid moderate snow now.

Much bigger flake size with this second band, hopefully it accumulates as efficiently as the first. Yorktown, NY

2.75 inches down in Yorktown heights. Moderate snow.