SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Most of our mixing events over the years are snow to sleet to rain to 40+ degrees. This is a pretty cool and unique event with a very anomalous arctic airmass. The fact that plain rain isn’t even in the discussion is cool. Even if we “only” get 4-5 inches in dc and then ice and then arctic cold it’s still going to be awesome. True deep winter stuff coming.

I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.

6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it!

I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct.

Looks like noise level stuff. Same general idea all over.

NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.

For dc Euro looks like about 0.8 qpf as snow, and then 0.6 qpf as sleet. 6-10 of snow and a thick layer of sleet, that’ll be a high impact event if it verifies.

Good euro run for the northern tier, keeps them all snow basically the whole storm. Let’s get another shift.

Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.

Imagine we actually get the euro to trend back to something better? Has that ever happened with a mix event? Trends back colder towards game time.

I’ll sell my soul for the GFS man it is pretty

In a mixing event for our area the best thing to do is just take the guidance with the fastest flip. It usually ends up being right. GFS is smoking the good stuff.

lol gfs gonna keep showing this and then fold like a cheap suit 8 hours before the event

Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.

SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.