paulm

Paper published last summer argued that the net effect of that eruption was to cool the globe slightly overall, and that the impact from the volcano is now negligible. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041296

Thanks - Copernicus now has daily data for ERA5 through the 22nd available to download, so a few extra days left to go due to data postprocessing, but a record now looks likely, as you've said. Remarkable to see us edge 2024 given the ENSO flip.

Impressive to see 2025 even competitive with 2024, let alone running slightly above 2024 for most of January. Will be a close call for whether we finish as the warmest January on record in ERA5 or not.

Happy New Year all. Just a couple of days ago, the GEFS had no storm signal. Now, the signal is the strongest it has been with the most recent 6z GEFS run.

EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system.