JenkinsJinkies
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Everything posted by JenkinsJinkies
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We’ve seen numerous times how temp forecasts 2 weeks out flip flop as they get closer. Reminder that mid December showed a Boxing Day torch until the models flipped less than a week out. Also if you’re taking weenie ratings this personally then that’s a you problem.
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They’ve been burned by the years where the warmups started and never ended.
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How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week?
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What if we went over a tipping point after March 2018 that makes snow that month next to unheard of? Similar XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1321/
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CWG January forecast: https://archive.is/ECHhk
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Around 60 can still work out later down the line, but if it’s within a degree or two of 70 then it’s pretty much the kiss of death for the remainder of the season. See also 2017, 2020, and 2023.
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There’s a fine line between mid 50s and low 70s this time of year.
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Looks like the trend now is 6 and 12z punt and happy hour lives up to its name.
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Once you hit NY you get influenced by stuff that doesn’t apply to us. The only time it’s crap for them too is in a 2023 scenario.
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Some runs had us touching 70.
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That’s more the case for Pittsburgh and the Alleghenies. Climo wise Philadelphia proper is practically an extension of ME MD.
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I mean if a pattern is going to be bad for us it’s almost always bad for them too.
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South East is still a funeral parlor TN Valley is sticking the course on mid month improvement for the eastern US Surprisingly no cliff jumping in Philadelphia
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Reminder that it was supposed to torch this week.
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Found this in the TN forum, looks like the SER is getting suppressed to the Deep South.
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I can’t wait until the inevitable 180 bringing us back to the goods. These last 2 gfs runs will age just as well as the runs that had us torching this week.
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The 9th is 10 days away, not too late for it to reverse. It’s only 2 bad runs too far enough out to still get reversed.
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Even weirder, there’s more optimism in the TN valley forum.
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Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway?
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The southeastern states forum has turned into a funeral parlor after 12z.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
JenkinsJinkies replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Assuming it even verifies. -
Or normalcy bias considering their track record this year.
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Anything more than a “T” would be a little much for that setup.
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No that level of weenie transcends the forum. Look at Twitter, especially Webb’s before he did his about face around Christmas.
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If next year’s Niño materializes and the improvement in the PDO continues I wonder if 2027 will be remembered in the same vain as 2016 and 2003?
