JenkinsJinkies

What went wrong? We keep getting these "day of the event" fails...

This has transcended previous niñas though, there has not been a prolonged wet pattern since 2022. Every opportunity since then to end the overarching pattern has either resulted in it paradoxically intensifying (spring 2023 and last spring) or relatively short reprieves that end with it roaring back (this past June and July). Question is will the end of this niña finally open the floodgates or did the triple dip niña shift the atmosphere some more and now this is permanent for us?

Why is it that we need to have the planets align in order for that to happen? It is not supposed to be this hard to get decent rains around here.

If this busts it's really gonna hurt, and I'm guessing there's 0 chance for the models to do a 180 on the Imelda walk backs?

It's amazing how much Imelda's rain for the MA is following the same rug pull pattern as the Feb. 19-20 incident...

When are we going to get a wet pattern? Every time one gets advertised the rug gets pulled at the last minute...

>Looks at Vermont It begins.

It's supposed to really start late afternoon.

I’ve been looking at the main tropical thread and posts from the people behind CWG. It’s looking like it’s a pipe dream, screwed over again.

Lucy’d with rain… We better get a true prolonged wet pattern after the Niña breaks…

Meanwhile Euro pretty much undid yesterday’s walk backs.

So we fail upwards then.

Euro range to the start of October so it’s about Imelda mostly. If you look at the euro runs it’s been getting walked back further and further since yesterday morning. This is coupled with major forecasters and prominent users advertising a wet pattern for this upcoming week that, with these walk backs, is now in jeopardy. Normally I don’t harp on rain as hardly as snow but it’s fall in a budding Niña, there’s a real possibility that after this there’s nothing for quite some time. Given our luck we could make a run at last year’s rainless record again this year since September seems to be a repeat of last year.

We’ll be lucky if we get half an inch and even that is starting to look overly optimistic. Walk backs beget further walk backs.

I’ve seen this song and dance too just this past winter. It ticks slightly back in our direction to give false hope only to go even further south than before in the subsequent run.

I’ve seen this song and dance before. Once a ridge shows up to spoil our precip it’s here to stay. It goes hand in hand with walkbacks begetting further walkbacks.

Once again the models give us a huge rain event only to walk it back to practically nothing north of Richmond. What was once a 5 inch even is now an event where we’ll be lucky to get half an inch. I’m willing to bet this is just the start and the walk backs will continue throughout the next two days. When is it going to be our turn?

Potential winter tier bust imminent

Will we ever get a big rain again?

That’s assuming this is the time we finally have the floodgates open after the Niña breaks instead of the dry pattern injecting steroids against all logic.

Looks like another big rain event for the MA goes bust. Is a widespread soaking rain with no “winners and losers” too much to ask?

I wonder what the conditions would have to be where one can reliability say that 2003/2010/2016 will never happen again even if you live in Boston and if you want that level of snow again you’ll have to move north AND up in elevation.

What happened to cause the walk back? Seems to happen a lot these days.

Is this going to be another event that poos the bed for 95 and east?

I mean Florida has downpours that can stop traffic.