JenkinsJinkies
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Everything posted by JenkinsJinkies
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Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.
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My weekend plans are all indoors, bring it on.
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We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm.
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In fairness 2-3 inches would be much above average for Arkansas.
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What about if it’s a 22-23 pattern where there’s never any real chance?
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We were saved from topping the futility chart by a March snow. Even if it didn’t happen most of us broke an inch. In 22-23 we were nowhere near an inch and there was zero chance of March “saving” us.
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Watch this be another October where we alternate between 80 degree torches and fall weather.
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In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us.
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Before August was a different story.
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Again, we’re getting a Feb 19-20 redux. This is the “throw us a bone” run and 0z will be even further south and east than 12z was.
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16-17 was a weak Niña. 19-20 was neutral but given the region temps it was a “weak weak Niña” of sorts
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Helene made a hard left last year.
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The thing is that it compounds over time. Yes growing season being over minimizes impact but if the pattern persistence follows the same trajectory it has since 2023 then we might still be in this mess come spring facing similar event failures. Doubly so if we get another underperforming winter or full blown nonwinter.
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If this were winter there would’ve been 10 pages of weenie crashout preceding this.
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Is that before or after the mid January heat wave?
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The wrong part of the pacific is warm
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You misunderstand, you mentioned that it could go dry for a time and I mentioned that models show nothing after today until around the 11th and given how far out that is it's fantasy range. Budding niña autumn plus a monster high pressure ridge means very little in the way of rain. Given our luck these past few years these ridges are self sustaining and can park themselves over us for weeks. Like October into November of last year, there was zero rain accumulation for exactly 5 weeks.
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After this there's nothing until at least the 2nd weekend of October. How likely is it that we make a run at last year's rainless streak record?
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Stick a fork in Imelda, it's over for us. It may even be over before it even begins.
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What went wrong? We keep getting these "day of the event" fails...
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This has transcended previous niñas though, there has not been a prolonged wet pattern since 2022. Every opportunity since then to end the overarching pattern has either resulted in it paradoxically intensifying (spring 2023 and last spring) or relatively short reprieves that end with it roaring back (this past June and July). Question is will the end of this niña finally open the floodgates or did the triple dip niña shift the atmosphere some more and now this is permanent for us?
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Why is it that we need to have the planets align in order for that to happen? It is not supposed to be this hard to get decent rains around here.
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If this busts it's really gonna hurt, and I'm guessing there's 0 chance for the models to do a 180 on the Imelda walk backs?
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It's amazing how much Imelda's rain for the MA is following the same rug pull pattern as the Feb. 19-20 incident...
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When are we going to get a wet pattern? Every time one gets advertised the rug gets pulled at the last minute...
