JenkinsJinkies

Question is will the tune change 2 weeks from now or will forecasters string us along with "not too late" pieces until it's February and we're staring down a week of 70s?

ENSO thread has transitioned to last rites, Philly is transitioning to last rites, Our med/long range thread is transitioning to last rites, NYC is hanging by a thread, NE isn't far behind.

Honestly there's no chance until next month based off of what I've been seeing.

I mean January is 2 weeks away, prime climo window starts in 4 weeks. Could it turn around by then and the models won't pick up on it until it's closer?

Will this age like wine or milk? https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2001702501557374997?s=46

In January yes, February not so much.

I'm not expecting it but on the other hand we're closing in on 30 years so I wouldn't be shocked if this is the time the stars finally align.

95-96 was a Niña

The entire ENSO thread is a tug of war between those extremes.

I have a feeling that Webb is going to ride the torch wave until the very end.

With the back and forth between last rites and "just wait it out" in the ENSO thread you'd expect to see some cliff jumping here.

It is also more than 2 weeks until the start of January.

The last time DCA got a comparable amount of December snow it wasn’t shut out for the remainder of the season once January rolled around.

I mean it was advertised to be a long shot. Even in New York.

12z GFS has us in the 40s for Christmas.

So Euro caved?

Also 16-17, 22-23 had no measurable December snow in the DC and Baltimore area airports. Very much not the case this year.

Wasn’t on the euro

Confirmation bias

If the PDO is truly improving then we may be entering another heater. Imagine a Niño with this improved PDO.

I wonder how he’ll respond if the warm up getting walked back materializes?

PSU also has a rule of thumb type of thing where the odds of a certain type of snow season are based off of when his area records an inch of snow for the first time. It’s been a while since I saw the post but from what I remember it was something along the lines of if he gets his first inch around December 1st then there’s a good chance of a blockbuster winter, if it’s around this time of December then there’s good odds of reaching climo, but if it’s in the lead up to New Years and beyond then it’s going to be a dead ratter.

I mean based on the previous posts the pna may be improved by late January.