JenkinsJinkies

The previous Nina was over for months by late April 2023 yet the dryness persisted.

Has anyone noticed that, with the exception of the winter and spring of this year, every time it looks like the dry pattern is going to change it doesn't? Last year there was a huge rain event in late April that appeared on models to usher in a wetter pattern, but instead it was followed by nothing at all and a super dry May erased any improvement. A similar thing happened last fall and most recently the rain stretch 2-3 weeks ago. Did we swap climates with California sometime in the winter of 22-23?

Looking at tropical tidbits, there might not be any more rain this month.

I wonder if 2003, 2009/10, and 2016 masked that to the untrained observer?

I hope everyone liked the 10-12 days of measurable rain because per the weather forecasting services there might not be any more for more than 2 weeks.

Oktoberfest and Halloween discussions welcome

It's actually going to feel like fall this time around.

Clippers get weakened by the Appalachians anyway.

A week that ends on Wednesday?

I don’t know, Sandy still gave us a good bit of rain.

Is there something about our geography that causes stuff like this and sometimes nor’easters to dry slot us?

5 day qpf is pretty optimistic for at least an inch around metro Baltimore. Even more around the city itself.

I mean 2018 being the wettest year, Isaias turning into a Nor’easter right over us in 2020, temps in the single digits on Christmas Day 2022 certainly isn’t what one has in mind in regards to nothingburgers.

The models showed the eastern shore getting skunked rather consistently.

DC went between 1996 and 2018 without having snow in November. I don’t even know the last time they’ve had October snow. Seriously though I expect this Niña to give us a very busy thread with a perpetual hr 384.

Storms fizzle when they come from the west and when they come from the south. They don’t fizzle when they come from the north though. Strange how down-sloping doesn’t happen over those central PA hills.

I was on the beltway from Baltimore Co to Howard Co and got a grand total of 10 drops, not all at once either… This event is a dud isn’t it?

in fairness I posted this before the 18z update.

So I noticed something. We seem to be repeating 2016 and 2017 just in reverse order. Last year started with a horrible winter and ended with a more tepid December and rainfall totals for DCA were more or less the same as 2017’s. This year started with a warm winter that had snow, had intense summer heat, and a wet start that turned dry. Given that we’re going into a nina and with how recent rains have busted we could very well see similar precip levels to 2016 (which was 31 in). DCA currently sits at 29 in. YTD and with the current rate it’s not impossible for us to only get 2 inches of rain for the remainder of the year.

So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so?

Wait if this is a winter warmup then we should test out the 2nd thread rule at some point.

September torches happen here. Like last year, and 2016, and 2017 had a back half torch.

It’s weird that they’re getting a torch and we’re not.

Is there a real chance that there may not be any more rain this month?

Saturday’s rain has pretty much vanished. QPF got walked back so much we’re now in the lowest rainfall total that isn’t entirely dry. GFS shows we might not get anything at all until the 2nd half of the month, possibly as late as the 20th or beyond.