JenkinsJinkies
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Everything posted by JenkinsJinkies
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Christmas 2017 had two possibilities on the models 10 days out. One was a cold shot and the other was widespread 70s, the cold one verified.
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In fairness when the mood switched 2 weeks ago I changed my expectations from less than an inch to at most 6 inches for the metros. I knew this form of ENSO never gives us those 18in - 2ft storms. I didn't change my contest entry though because that would've for sure jinxed it.
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Second actually, but I've been lurking since 22-23. I used CWG to track between 16-17 and 22-23.
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PSU has been hinting at the models showing a SER Pac puke fest sometime after the new year and he made a post explaining how that setup is usually self sustained for weeks on end. He's not 100% on board yet because he said some pieces aren't in place yet but given our luck over the past 8 years...
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Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?
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How would you feel if snow misses us to the south like in 2017-2018? The Capital Weather Gang even wrote an article back then that said something along the lines of "the number of southern cities that have more snow than DC this winter is embarassing".
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Because Zoom didn't exist in 1994
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+12, now that’s a torch.
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What caused the widespread underperformance east of 95?
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16-17 was followed by a double dip in 17-18.
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It's a Nina, it will double dip.
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What caused this to underperform? Or is there still time?
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DCA average high for Christmas is 47, Accuweather's current forecast gives a high of 51 for that day so +4. A torch would be more like today where the high is 62 compared to the average of 50, which is +12.
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No one was, low/mid 50s is not a torch.
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Ah but I counter with the snowstorm of November 2018. First time DCA had measurable snow in November since 1996.
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It's barely a Nina though.
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Oh no we'll miss out on 0.1 inches...
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Imagine we get a huge snow storm on the anniversary of last January’s 80 degree day.
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A few years ago February was +8
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If this verifies I will lose the snowfall contest.
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Imagine if Jan or Feb is AN by double digits...
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You got 4 inches in November.
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Weenies will cling onto anything that will validate their snow fantasies until it either verifies or the rug is pulled. Even if it's a <1% long shot some of them will take it as gospel until 6 hours later and the new run has it completely vanish.
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This current pattern threw a bone to the snow weenies, you have to remember that a month ago a lot of people here announced last rites in regards to winter.
