JenkinsJinkies

Perhaps placing your met temperature gage is a place that’s a giant plane of pure asphalt might skew the results…

Found this in New York metro: The part I'd like to quote is: "The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025." This winter could be historically bad... so bad that my snowfall prediction might be too optimistic...

The dry steak might end for me locally on Friday.

That blob over DC has to be the urban heat island

I've brought this up before, there are times where it looks like the dry pattern is about to change but it doesn't. We get thrown a bone or two and then the rain stops again. See also: April and September 2023

It looks like the early November pattern change may have collapsed.

Well no more CWG for me, not after the events of today.

21-22 was less than an inch away from climo at DCA.

So it’s going to shoot into the 70s that week. Got it.

I expect it to be near the lower ends in each band. 3-5 for the metros <1 for Richmond 40-45 for Mt. PSU

Tomorrow is the critical day 10 mark.

Tropical tidbits isn’t a wall to wall goose egg anymore either

So in two weeks the the forecast will suddenly and epically collapse, got it.

Here's my preliminary snow prediction for DC. 3-5 inches, possibly from a single event. Then a week later it's in the 60s for about 5 days in a row.

I heard that, overall, this part of the country is supposed to get wetter.

I wonder if this is a Niña induced blip or if another switch flipped and now it’s going to start raining less like how it’s now snowing less?

This is the time of year when it’s just a nuisance. If we had this pattern 6 months ago on the other hand…

Didn't say it was going to be a good winter.

Sun angle, things crisp faster in the warmer months.

Get used to the cold west coast/warm east coast setup. That's the norm in winters with the current analogs.

Looking at tropical tidbits there likely wont be any real chance for rain until around Halloween.

Makes me wonder if the Niña will cancel out and we’ll be neutral?

You underestimate the number of weenies in denial.

I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one.

I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago.