JenkinsJinkies

It was so strange how Helene just veered hard west as soon as it crossed into NC.

If that's the case then we could be in for some California tier wildfires from all that undergrowth.

Once again rain entered the forecast for Sunday and for a few days models were showing decent forecasted amounts, then once it got to 2-3 days out it got significantly walked back. This has been the trend since last summer, a threat shows up long range, in the days leading up to it there's widespread modeling of an inch or more, only to then suddenly and epically get walked back to about 5-25% of what was forecasted. Numerous rain events have failed over that period of time, wether it be westward traveling Ohio valley thunderstorms getting killed by down sloping or more steady systems from the south running into an anti rain force field somewhere around Richmond a good portion of our rainfall has either entirely fizzled out by the time it gets to us or gets so degraded that what was supposed to be an inch turns out to be 0.1 inches. Ever since winter 2022-23 it seems like something changed with our rainfall patterns, there appears to be more suppression keeping the moisture locked in the deep south. Even tropical remnants have trouble making their way up here now.

Sunday's rain is getting walked back

Using CWG's forecast for DCA I would give it an A. Area wide it gets a C.

Why do you keep touching the stove?

Looks like next weekend’s rain is on life support? Whats with these forecasts getting significantly walked back over the last couple years?

Climate prediction center seems to like the idea of us being wetter than normal in the 6-10 and 8-15 day range. They also give us a moderate chance of heavy rainfall next weekend.

There were so many failed rain events last year that if they were snow events they would’ve gotten a “what went wrong” write up.

Are the low lands going to get shafted again?

Looked at Accuweather’s monthly forecast page, DCA didn’t have a single 70 degree day for the entire DJF period. A few days came close but the highest temperature reached was 69.

How long until it's can kicked? Or trends south?

And lots of days to go to see if the weenies touch the stove again.

With this Nina being a late bloomer the typical crap pattern still happened, but it was shifted by 2 months. So instead of having this Christmas week we're having it now.

It's this pattern we've had since 2023, every time there's a big rain that looks like it'll end a dry pattern it instead gets followed by 3 weeks of wall to wall low humidity cloudless days. If this winter was a torch I would be wondering if we had swapped climates with California sometime over the last 2 years.

I guessing because of how January went and how it was a wall to wall cold season I guess that’s we’re not getting a “what went wrong” thread for the pattern collapse. Maybe we could do a “When is it going to be our turn” thread?

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1893401493694210165?s=46

Even if we get the raging SER that's a Nina staple?

I look forward to the 27th when the bulk of that is in South Carolina

2018 gave us snow even later than that.

The what went wrong thread is going to be an interesting read.

The posts I'm referring to were getting the point across via subtext, reading between the lines shows how they were feeling. They were also not saying it'll never snow at all again, they were saying that a 2016 style event may not happen again.

The ending of that episode really pissed me off.

Every time it slightly ticks NW it then proceeds to go even further SE. The bullseye is now in South Carolina…

This winter puts those extreme points to bed. Like you said, overall it is snowing less, however it’s not as bad as some of the panic posts had been suggesting these past few years. Let’s just hope the PDO actually is flipping and we get a Niño probably in 26-27 and score then. That way it’ll shut them up for a couple years.