griteater

Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96.

Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle

At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington

Euro out to 66 - it's a touch slower this run and a touch north...center looks close to Topsail Island

Euro run looks very similar so far out to hr27

It's wild to think that it has taken this long, but it's great to now see the hurricane center watch/warning products shown inland as opposed to just at the coast

Here's the 500mb trend on the Euro Ensemble near landfall time. The anomaly centers in 1) W Alaska, 2) off Pac NW coast, and 3) in SE Canada have sharpened over time....so, after the hurricane leaves the steering influence of the Bermuda High, it's getting stuck in the Carolinas underneath the increasingly more amplified eastern U.S. ridge.

Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120)

CMC has shifted south a bit too from prev run

GFS out to 48, it looks like it is heading roughly toward the NC/SC border

GFS is still south out to hr39

GFS is a little south early on out to hr18

This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe

In terms of the inland track and rainfall, Euro is a noteworthy jog north from its previous run

Heavy rain axis on Euro is Wilmington area up toward Raleigh and the Triangle

Euro out to 87 hits Wilmington....was N Myrtle Beach last run

Cat 5 tracks... Cat 4 & 5 tracks...

CMC is a little north of previous run thru hr69, tracking toward the southern Outer Banks

The French site - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

Hurricane Center has wind products here... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?tswind120#wcontents https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?mltoa34#contents

Latest UKMet run (12z) moves it thru Jacksonville, NC / Emerald Isle area, then into SE portion of VA. Previous run at 00z brought it into Cape Hatteras

Dust off the model performance thread? Don't answer that I think the new GFS (FV3) has a better chance of verifying than the current one.

5AM NHC Disco... The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10 kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little below the FSSE model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

Some thoughts on where I think we are headed with the QBO this fall/winter - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1037734570198753281