griteater

Cat 5 tracks... Cat 4 & 5 tracks...

CMC is a little north of previous run thru hr69, tracking toward the southern Outer Banks

The French site - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

Hurricane Center has wind products here... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?tswind120#wcontents https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?mltoa34#contents

Latest UKMet run (12z) moves it thru Jacksonville, NC / Emerald Isle area, then into SE portion of VA. Previous run at 00z brought it into Cape Hatteras

Dust off the model performance thread? Don't answer that I think the new GFS (FV3) has a better chance of verifying than the current one.

5AM NHC Disco... The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10 kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little below the FSSE model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

It's an abbreviation for 500mb...the movement and evolution of upper atmosphere waves are big pieces of the puzzle when it comes to forecasting and these are most commonly tracked at the 500mb level (5H or h5).

I have sunshine here...in the sky that is

I predict the NAM jogs east next run

^ It would be right on the 30 yr anniversary

Jan '88 is back bay bee. It's going to trend south right on top of us. This is the one

Yeah work from home has ruined a good snow day

It's looks like both the HRRR and the NAM 3km pivot the precip shield and back-build the trailing large band associated with the upper wave overnight and swing it through overnight and into the AM

You can see on the CC radar a surge of warmth as the snow vs other line races up to I-85 in the upstate and NE from there to Mooresville area. Basically, the atmosphere can feel Mack's warmth coming up from Columbia Looking at the HRRR, it does show this surging warm nose (not to be mistaken with the pre-storm warm bubble) and it hangs in the upstate to CLT corridor until overnight into sunrise unfortunately The benefactor of this surge will be those just to the north of it who are cold enough for snow, maybe Hickory to Morganton to Winston

The 3km NAM has convective shower/thunderstorm cells rolling through SE GA into S SC, so the model is indicating that those storms could rob the moisture transport into central NC...we'll see

GFS and Euro both roll comma head precip through NE GA into the western Carolinas in the overnight to late morning timeframe....should keep the snowy mood going in those regions. This makes sense given that the trough axis is still as far west as the Mississippi/Alabama border at 4AM. It won't fully clear out until that trough axis swings through. Accumulations will be more efficient once the sun goes down...it makes a difference.

My 1-3 call there wasn't enough. My apologies

GSP update, ha... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday: No changes. Will address the near term with the new fcst package. Suffice to say the wheels have not fallen off...yet.

I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time

GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too). From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet? You need them

I have visions of a new lessons learned thread appearing soon

It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty

Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT). It's usually the other way around. It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't * Stands up and flips table *