griteater

It's an abbreviation for 500mb...the movement and evolution of upper atmosphere waves are big pieces of the puzzle when it comes to forecasting and these are most commonly tracked at the 500mb level (5H or h5).

I have sunshine here...in the sky that is

I predict the NAM jogs east next run

^ It would be right on the 30 yr anniversary

Jan '88 is back bay bee. It's going to trend south right on top of us. This is the one

Yeah work from home has ruined a good snow day

It's looks like both the HRRR and the NAM 3km pivot the precip shield and back-build the trailing large band associated with the upper wave overnight and swing it through overnight and into the AM

You can see on the CC radar a surge of warmth as the snow vs other line races up to I-85 in the upstate and NE from there to Mooresville area. Basically, the atmosphere can feel Mack's warmth coming up from Columbia Looking at the HRRR, it does show this surging warm nose (not to be mistaken with the pre-storm warm bubble) and it hangs in the upstate to CLT corridor until overnight into sunrise unfortunately The benefactor of this surge will be those just to the north of it who are cold enough for snow, maybe Hickory to Morganton to Winston

The 3km NAM has convective shower/thunderstorm cells rolling through SE GA into S SC, so the model is indicating that those storms could rob the moisture transport into central NC...we'll see

GFS and Euro both roll comma head precip through NE GA into the western Carolinas in the overnight to late morning timeframe....should keep the snowy mood going in those regions. This makes sense given that the trough axis is still as far west as the Mississippi/Alabama border at 4AM. It won't fully clear out until that trough axis swings through. Accumulations will be more efficient once the sun goes down...it makes a difference.

My 1-3 call there wasn't enough. My apologies

GSP update, ha... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday: No changes. Will address the near term with the new fcst package. Suffice to say the wheels have not fallen off...yet.

I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time

GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too). From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet? You need them

I have visions of a new lessons learned thread appearing soon

It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty

Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT). It's usually the other way around. It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't * Stands up and flips table *

Gulf sea surface temperatures are above normal. It's going to be a good ol fashioned, slow moving, gulf low with long SW flow moisture fetch. Not a wound up system with convection robbing and splotchy radar coverage...my thoughts anyway

I like 1-3 there

I would go 1-3

That's crazy. GFS has precip from tonight into Saturday aftn for the upstate

Just a follow up to say that a stronger system with stronger sfc low and stronger 850mb wave/low will, in fact, show more warm nosing....this is not much of an issue for Bama and GA, but would be more of an issue as you go east as the GFS shows with a stronger system now.

I mean, it basically always ends up this way right? Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way!

Interesting there how it shows the strong omega (red bars on left) higher up in the 300-500mb range....indicative of the strong divergence from a very strong jet streak aloft over the northeast