griteater

For Nino 3.4 Aug to Oct model releases: UKMet Aug: Moderate Nino Sep: Weak Nino Oct: Moderate Nino Jamstec Aug: Weak Nino Sep: Moderate Nino Oct: Strong Nino

Here's a new version of the ENSO Base Chart (SST) with all El Ninos since 1950 included, and with the new September value in for this year...

Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger

Here's the Euro Seasonal (Dec-Feb) Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger

From @true_weather...

Info from StormVista on the Euro: 6z and 18z will run out to hr90 on the operational run, and out to hr144 on the ensemble run. Sounds like they are waiting on a few things from ECMWF, but expect to begin having those runs 'soon.' On the ENSO front, the latest weekly SST value for Nino 3.4 is up to +0.6. Subsurface warmth continues to look healthy and more westerly winds are occurring across the central and east Pacific. Weak El Nino looks like a solid call now IMO.

Alternate El Nino Base charts using the Modoki Index... For Weak El Ninos Post 1978... For Weak El Ninos from 1950-1978 Conventional vs. Modoki El Nino Pattern... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

Agree, I have been a little skeptical about ENSO reaching official weak El Nino status, but the current subsurface profile combined with westerlies pushing out from the West Pacific into the Central and Eastern Pacific are driving warming profiles. The models showed this spike all along for Sept into Oct, so there's that as well. Despite the recent warming, there will be ebbs and flows with the SSTs going forward. Here are a couple of charts I put together on the El Nino Base... El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos Post 1978... El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos from 1950 to 1978... East vs. Central Pacific El Nino Pattern... https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL047364 http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/datos/EC.txt

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks? I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand. Anyway, I'm just speculating. I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic. Thanks.

Well sea surface temperatures aren't the only thing that dictate a winter forecast, but that's for another day.

Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php. At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach. The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run

Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.

^ That's interesting...that's the first model I've seen increase the SSTs.

Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet

UKMet moved south. The storm tracks SW along the SC coast, then west into southern SC, then up into SW NC / E TN....this matches up with the latest runs of the FV3 and Euro. Looks like 12z FV3 is running now

Chaser located on North Topsail Beach. He's in a "good" spot for surge....hope he has a high floor to retreat to though - https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1040253660939341824

Yeah, now is the time that it should begin to veer off more to the WNW, then West....but the trend has definitely been for it tracking a little north of the Euro and TVCN guidance...the GFS has done pretty well actually in the short term, but it veers it off to the west as well

GFS and UKMet run it west to east across central/northern SC, but the FV3 and Euro send it more SW and track it down into southern SC. The latest Euro actually keeps the center offshore of SC until it hits Charleston, then moves it west across southern SC. IMO, the FV3 and Euro have been the better performing models in terms of being the trend setters. In terms of coastal storm surge and beach erosion, I would put Topsail Beach up thru Sneads Ferry in the crosshair for max damage....bad up thru Emerald Isle as well

UKMet looks a little south and west of the GFS track. Looks like it is just SE of Cape Fear at hr24, just NW of Charleston at hr48, then it runs west thru SC, then up into central/eastern TN

There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.

Sept JMA release...3 month mean for Dec/Jan/Feb - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php Image on far right is 500mb, middle is 850mb temperatures, far left is Sea Level Pressure On the 500mb image on the far right, it has some ideal anomaly centers...max above normal heights in Davis Strait and along Canada west coast. Max below normal heights in north-central Pacific and off the Northeast U.S. coast. Only thing missing to make it nearly perfect is below normal heights off California to Texas (southern stream). JMA has a low end weak El Nino on the SST chart

Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

Euro is a slow crawl with the storm center Mon into Tues up into W NC and E TN with plenty of rain along an axis from Columbia to Boone

hr114-126 it moves into E GA, then into the western upstate of SC. More rain in SC, with rain now focused from Columbia to upstate into western NC

It's moving slowly across southern SC hr96-108....loads of rain across most of SC