griteater

Isn't the "negative subsurface trend in the eastern center" from the 2017 image?

The November Euro for Dec-Feb, Dec, Jan, and Feb (500mb maps)...

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86 11/3: 1.65 / 1.11 11/2: 1.51 / 0.94 11/1: 1.46 / 0.90 10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

I'm not familiar with that specific NAO connection Westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline are forecast to subside over the next 10 days. I would expect to see Nino 3.4 cool down some here soon - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=global&pkg=u850aMean&runtime=2018110400&fh=120

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/3: 1.65 / 1.11 11/2: 1.51 / 0.94 11/1: 1.46 / 0.90 10/31: 1.39 / 1.00 10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

Here's an image showing the westerly wind burst on the south side of Typhoon Yutu, located in the West Pacific on Oct 23

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/2: 1.51 / 0.94 11/1: 1.46 / 0.90 10/31: 1.39 / 1.00 10/30: 1.23 / 1.03 10/29: 0.98 / 0.86 As recent as Sep22, we were stuck around 0.0 (Neutral)

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index for the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) - the warm spike continues 11/1: 1.46 / 0.90 10/31: 1.39 / 1.00 10/30: 1.23 / 1.03 10/29: 0.98 / 0.86 10/28: 0.54 / 0.60 The recent warm spike is likely due to the West Pac typhoon that kicked off a brief westerly wind burst on its south side (Oct 20-28), which then rolled east with MJO related tropical forcing. Any westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific are going to cause Nino 3.4 warming given the structure of the surface and subsurface warmth. After this MJO passage, we should see at least some level of cooling, all part of the back and forth slosh with ENSO.

Those images are from tropicaltidbits...freebies

Nino 3.4 up again to +1.39 on the AVHRR daily for Oct31

Nino 3.4 is up to +1.23 on the Oct30 reading. Modoki index up to +1.03. I realize that ENSO is best viewed over a monthly to several months time period, but I'm just reporting the daily numbers.

Nino 3.4 jumped up from +0.54 on Oct28 to +0.98 on Oct29 on the daily AVHRR SST data, which is more in line with NOAA's recent weekly reading of +1.1. Lots of warmth shown here up and down the central to central-west Pacific (top image). Warmest temps in the warm pool are located just west of the dateline (bottom image)

To me it’s just another indicator of a legit El Niño. The somewhat persistent low level westerly wind anomalies are impacting the ocean via the west to east surface current. The warmest water (not anomalies) is always to the west, so any west to east current is indicative of warming in the nino regions.

Yeah, he took a little grief about those temperature contours - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1052989466330259457

Each one will update next month

IRI Model Forecast Dec-Feb Precip

IRI Model Forecast Jan-Mar

IRI Model Forecast Dec-Feb

NOAA Forecast for Jan-Mar

NOAA Forecast for Dec-Feb

The NSF Model map

Doing a quick tally, and looking at winters in which the (AO+NAO)/2 was negative, and when the QBO at 45mb averaged for Jan-Feb was distinctly positive or negative, I have 14 winters with +QBO and 10 with -QBO. That's for the QBO at 45mb. Some do QBO analysis at the 30mb level. For this winter, we are likely to see the transition from -QBO to +QBO at 45mb in the Jan-Feb timeframe. Here's today's winter outlook posted from BAMWX.com. They have a cold outlook, but they are balanced and will go warm if it warrants - https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/1052596019635081217

The Euro for Dec-Feb was posted earlier in the month, but here's a different view of it at 500mb (1st image). Second image is the EuroSip which is an ensemble of the Euro, UKMet, Meteo France model, CFS, and JMA

At 30mb, it should be up to around zero for October (i.e. transitioning from negative to positive), and continue climbing positive thru winter. At 50mb, it should remain negative for at least the first half of winter.

October release of the JMA has a trough in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. sans the deep south. Aleutian Low is weak and west. Max -VP anomalies (CHI) are west of the dateline in the tropical Pacific. SSTs increased only slightly and show a weak El Nino.