griteater

UKMet moved south. The storm tracks SW along the SC coast, then west into southern SC, then up into SW NC / E TN....this matches up with the latest runs of the FV3 and Euro. Looks like 12z FV3 is running now

Chaser located on North Topsail Beach. He's in a "good" spot for surge....hope he has a high floor to retreat to though - https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1040253660939341824

Yeah, now is the time that it should begin to veer off more to the WNW, then West....but the trend has definitely been for it tracking a little north of the Euro and TVCN guidance...the GFS has done pretty well actually in the short term, but it veers it off to the west as well

GFS and UKMet run it west to east across central/northern SC, but the FV3 and Euro send it more SW and track it down into southern SC. The latest Euro actually keeps the center offshore of SC until it hits Charleston, then moves it west across southern SC. IMO, the FV3 and Euro have been the better performing models in terms of being the trend setters. In terms of coastal storm surge and beach erosion, I would put Topsail Beach up thru Sneads Ferry in the crosshair for max damage....bad up thru Emerald Isle as well

UKMet looks a little south and west of the GFS track. Looks like it is just SE of Cape Fear at hr24, just NW of Charleston at hr48, then it runs west thru SC, then up into central/eastern TN

There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.

Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

Euro is a slow crawl with the storm center Mon into Tues up into W NC and E TN with plenty of rain along an axis from Columbia to Boone

hr114-126 it moves into E GA, then into the western upstate of SC. More rain in SC, with rain now focused from Columbia to upstate into western NC

It's moving slowly across southern SC hr96-108....loads of rain across most of SC

It still hasn't moved, hr87-96, torrential rains in NE section of SC into SE NC. It finally kicks west across southern SC at hr99 Sunday morning.

Euro basically hasn't moved the storm from hr72-87, it's still just NE of Charleston....unreal

hr72-78, Euro is crawling at a position just NE of Charleston still, right along the coast, still a formidable storm

By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast

Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now

At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear

UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.

The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93

Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473

An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely.

A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season

The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC.

Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736