griteater

12z CMC is farther south this run compared to its previous run. Major ice storm in parts of Central NC into the Upstate and up into south central VA. Snow in NW NC up into SW VA

12z UKMet at the end of its run on the crude maps at hr144 looks solid. Sfc low in NW Gulf or near Houston. Sfc High 1035+mb over Detroit / Lake Erie. Southern wave looks good.

It will trend weaker and you and Frosty will be crying woe is me in here, then it will end up nuking you in the end and Orangeburg will be crying woes is me in here

This reminds me of my griteater signature text in NC State red below

We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends. The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder. Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east. It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment. Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.

It looks like the anticipated Nino 3.4 spike has begun... Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data): 11/25: 0.98 / 0.66 11/24: 0.69 / 0.59 11/23: 0.81 / 0.69 11/22: 0.65 / 0.48 11/21: 0.71 / 0.46

^ Raindance is dying to somehow get it warm in the east I agree with your thought though on the cycling of the tropical forcing and potential impacts. Seems like it just wants to be cold though. We’ll see

High chance these upcoming westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline will lead to a solid spike in Nino 3.4 (image from @mjventrice)

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data): 11/20: 0.72 / 0.49 11/19: 0.67 / 0.53 11/18: 0.65 / 0.51 11/17: 0.60 / 0.51 11/16: 0.59 / 0.44

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data): 11/18: 0.65 / 0.51 11/17: 0.60 / 0.51 11/16: 0.59 / 0.44 11/15: 0.55 / 0.41 11/14: 0.57 / 0.35 We should see another round of warming in Nino 3.4 at the end of the month and into early Dec when the MJO related westerlies move out into the central Pacific

Enjoyed it Don, thanks for posting. Hope you will continue to do these. One thing - check your surface temp anomaly maps - it looks like you need to change 2009 to 2010 in your Jan and Feb composites

The warm anomalies are stretched out across a large portion of the Pacific right now. That look registers more in the camp of west based / modoki than it does east based. No, I don't think we are going to see a hard move west or east. That would be the thing to look for though in order for it to have implications on the winter...and whether there are also atmospheric changes to go along with it (e.g. changes to VP anomaly patterns).

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data): 11/14: 0.57 / 0.35 11/13: 0.71 / 0.50 11/12: 0.64 / 0.53 11/11: 0.51 / 0.51 11/10: 0.48 / 0.50 11/8: 0.69 / 0.61 11/7: 0.85 / 0.73 11/6: 0.84 / 0.65 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data): 11/12: 0.64 / 0.53 11/11: 0.51 / 0.51 11/10: 0.48 / 0.50 11/8: 0.69 / 0.61 11/7: 0.85 / 0.73 11/6: 0.84 / 0.65 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

The AVHRR numerical data for Nino 3.4 hasn't updated since 11/8. Tropical Tidbits has it down to 0.44. The Euro doesn't show any westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific over the next 10 days. The next round of warming will likely have to wait until later in the month when the tropical forcing becomes more favorable for westerly anomalies

Enjoyed the write-up Iso. You continue to push the science forward, kudos. Love the NAO predictor. I spent more time in this arena with my outlook this year as well, looking for more clues. If we do in fact see a 10mb SPV that is stronger than normal along with a solid -NAO, that would be quite the call. Good luck and thanks for taking the time to post it.

There was increased Greenland Blocking on the 500mb chart, and on your precip chart, the tropical precip is farther west

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/8: 0.69 / 0.61 11/7: 0.85 / 0.73 11/6: 0.84 / 0.65 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

I posted a winter outlook here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51692-griteaters-winter-outlook-18-19/

I posted a winter outlook on the main page - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51693-griteaters-winter-outlook-18-19/

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/7: 0.85 / 0.73 11/6: 0.84 / 0.65 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86 11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

Updated with Oct data now in

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/6: 0.84 / 0.65 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86 11/3: 1.65 / 1.11 11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) 11/5: 0.94 / 0.55 11/4: 1.13 / 0.86 11/3: 1.65 / 1.11 11/2: 1.51 / 0.94 11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

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