griteater
-
Posts
9,634 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by griteater
-
It has some snow or snow/sleet mix to start there
-
My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here
-
UKMet at hr144 at the end of its run - it's a little more positive tilt with the SW wave compared to the GFS, but a little less suppressive with the flow over the NE, so it's maybe similar in the end, though the wave may not close off on the UKMet run like the GFS
-
For this type of storm with a subtropical jet wave and trough over the NE States out ahead, this is right up there with the best looks that you will ever see at 500mb for west-central NC into the upstate
-
Be careful on the edges here with these amounts, but the GFS had a Miller A / mostly rain/snow look vs. a mixed event
-
I see 1.75 to 2.50 all snow around Hickory to Lenoir out to 183...clown maps will be monsters
-
GFS is the kind of storm you draw up for west-central NC into the upstate...southern wave is closing off and crawling, it's a beauty
-
It's hard to ask for a much better look at 500mb than what's on the GFS, regardless of the outcome here
-
GFS looks really good this run at 500mb out to 141. Sfc high at 1037 over E Iowa and sfc low in far SE TX
-
Prolonged event on the CMC that flips over to backside light snows
-
12z CMC is farther south this run compared to its previous run. Major ice storm in parts of Central NC into the Upstate and up into south central VA. Snow in NW NC up into SW VA
-
12z UKMet at the end of its run on the crude maps at hr144 looks solid. Sfc low in NW Gulf or near Houston. Sfc High 1035+mb over Detroit / Lake Erie. Southern wave looks good.
-
It will trend weaker and you and Frosty will be crying woe is me in here, then it will end up nuking you in the end and Orangeburg will be crying woes is me in here
-
This reminds me of my griteater signature text in NC State red below
-
We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends. The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder. Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east. It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment. Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.
-
Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php. At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach. The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run
-
Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.
-
Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet
-
UKMet moved south. The storm tracks SW along the SC coast, then west into southern SC, then up into SW NC / E TN....this matches up with the latest runs of the FV3 and Euro. Looks like 12z FV3 is running now
-
Chaser located on North Topsail Beach. He's in a "good" spot for surge....hope he has a high floor to retreat to though - https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1040253660939341824
-
Yeah, now is the time that it should begin to veer off more to the WNW, then West....but the trend has definitely been for it tracking a little north of the Euro and TVCN guidance...the GFS has done pretty well actually in the short term, but it veers it off to the west as well
-
GFS and UKMet run it west to east across central/northern SC, but the FV3 and Euro send it more SW and track it down into southern SC. The latest Euro actually keeps the center offshore of SC until it hits Charleston, then moves it west across southern SC. IMO, the FV3 and Euro have been the better performing models in terms of being the trend setters. In terms of coastal storm surge and beach erosion, I would put Topsail Beach up thru Sneads Ferry in the crosshair for max damage....bad up thru Emerald Isle as well
-
UKMet looks a little south and west of the GFS track. Looks like it is just SE of Cape Fear at hr24, just NW of Charleston at hr48, then it runs west thru SC, then up into central/eastern TN
-
There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.
-
Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.
