griteater
-
Posts
9,631 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by griteater
-
So the overall trends on the ensembles have been for a stronger sfc high, with more damming, with the low positioned farther south, and with it tracking east to west in tandem with the high. Hard to complain with the overall trends for many.
-
0.75 - 1.00 liquid
-
JMA is suppressed into the gulf with northern extent of the precip in N Bama / N GA over to SE NC. Look at those strong sfc highs with damming. Likely a wintry run for northern half of GA into central/northern SC and SE NC
-
^ Nice post olaf - UKMet looks very good there
-
EPS Mean coming in shifted south like the Op, and colder. Sfc low runs from Brownsville to south of Louisiana and over to off Jacksonville with strong damming high to the north moving in tandem. Wave looks better (more consolidated and clean - less strung out). Blocking trough over the NE looks good. This is a killer setup overall on the EPS, no doubt about it.
-
Euro closes off 500mb wave over N GA. Give thanks to these model runs today guys and gals. They don’t come around very often, and thank you El Nino
-
12z GEFS Mean matches ideas of the Op run....snow totals went up
-
It has some snow or snow/sleet mix to start there
-
My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here
-
UKMet at hr144 at the end of its run - it's a little more positive tilt with the SW wave compared to the GFS, but a little less suppressive with the flow over the NE, so it's maybe similar in the end, though the wave may not close off on the UKMet run like the GFS
-
For this type of storm with a subtropical jet wave and trough over the NE States out ahead, this is right up there with the best looks that you will ever see at 500mb for west-central NC into the upstate
-
Be careful on the edges here with these amounts, but the GFS had a Miller A / mostly rain/snow look vs. a mixed event
-
I see 1.75 to 2.50 all snow around Hickory to Lenoir out to 183...clown maps will be monsters
-
GFS is the kind of storm you draw up for west-central NC into the upstate...southern wave is closing off and crawling, it's a beauty
-
It's hard to ask for a much better look at 500mb than what's on the GFS, regardless of the outcome here
-
GFS looks really good this run at 500mb out to 141. Sfc high at 1037 over E Iowa and sfc low in far SE TX
-
Prolonged event on the CMC that flips over to backside light snows
-
12z CMC is farther south this run compared to its previous run. Major ice storm in parts of Central NC into the Upstate and up into south central VA. Snow in NW NC up into SW VA
-
12z UKMet at the end of its run on the crude maps at hr144 looks solid. Sfc low in NW Gulf or near Houston. Sfc High 1035+mb over Detroit / Lake Erie. Southern wave looks good.
-
It will trend weaker and you and Frosty will be crying woe is me in here, then it will end up nuking you in the end and Orangeburg will be crying woes is me in here
-
This reminds me of my griteater signature text in NC State red below
-
We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends. The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder. Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east. It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment. Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.
-
Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php. At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach. The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run
-
Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.
-
Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet
