griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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It starts to run into that confluence over the NE, then it just slides east. Sometimes when we have this type of setup, the wave is just too weak in the southern stream and it gets shredded. With this one, it shows signs of being a quality El Nino wave. We want the NE confluence to hold firm, but with a wave that is solid like this one so that it holds its amplitude and strength
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18z GFS
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The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC
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GFS actually ends up staying more suppressed than the last run as it goes off the SE coast....it's another slider. Not a lot of precip up into VA
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GFS will be another mauling, but it's a little north of previous....upper wave is closing off at hr159...big, slow moving wave
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Greenville NWS is bullish .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elogated east-west, with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This should diabaticly enhance classic cold air damming across the Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of a ra/sn event, with the postion of the ra/sn line still in question. The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter storm potential next weekend.
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It's an interesting debate, because I find some of the most interesting discussion to occur many, many days ahead of a storm....i.e. the timeframe where you are trying to sniff out the storm in the long range...and when you wait to start the storm thread, there is a lot of good discussion that remains separate from the storm thread (because it happened earlier), and that discussion gets a bit lost. But I totally understand that many storms fail so it doesn't make sense to start threads early. It's a tough balance, but the 5 day rule is solid.
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Alternate view of the strengthening trend of the damming high at today's hr144 on the EPS Mean...this is significant. The cold damming high to the north is the more difficult feature for us to achieve compared to getting the moisture out of the gulf in this setup IMO.
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So the overall trends on the ensembles have been for a stronger sfc high, with more damming, with the low positioned farther south, and with it tracking east to west in tandem with the high. Hard to complain with the overall trends for many.
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0.75 - 1.00 liquid
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JMA is suppressed into the gulf with northern extent of the precip in N Bama / N GA over to SE NC. Look at those strong sfc highs with damming. Likely a wintry run for northern half of GA into central/northern SC and SE NC
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^ Nice post olaf - UKMet looks very good there
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EPS Mean coming in shifted south like the Op, and colder. Sfc low runs from Brownsville to south of Louisiana and over to off Jacksonville with strong damming high to the north moving in tandem. Wave looks better (more consolidated and clean - less strung out). Blocking trough over the NE looks good. This is a killer setup overall on the EPS, no doubt about it.
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Euro closes off 500mb wave over N GA. Give thanks to these model runs today guys and gals. They don’t come around very often, and thank you El Nino
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12z GEFS Mean matches ideas of the Op run....snow totals went up
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It has some snow or snow/sleet mix to start there
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My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here
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UKMet at hr144 at the end of its run - it's a little more positive tilt with the SW wave compared to the GFS, but a little less suppressive with the flow over the NE, so it's maybe similar in the end, though the wave may not close off on the UKMet run like the GFS
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For this type of storm with a subtropical jet wave and trough over the NE States out ahead, this is right up there with the best looks that you will ever see at 500mb for west-central NC into the upstate
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Be careful on the edges here with these amounts, but the GFS had a Miller A / mostly rain/snow look vs. a mixed event
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I see 1.75 to 2.50 all snow around Hickory to Lenoir out to 183...clown maps will be monsters
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GFS is the kind of storm you draw up for west-central NC into the upstate...southern wave is closing off and crawling, it's a beauty
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It's hard to ask for a much better look at 500mb than what's on the GFS, regardless of the outcome here
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GFS looks really good this run at 500mb out to 141. Sfc high at 1037 over E Iowa and sfc low in far SE TX
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Prolonged event on the CMC that flips over to backside light snows
