griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Northern stream energy is diving in and phasing late....big snow totals in N NC Mtns into SW VA
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Sfc low is just off the SC coast at 162. Snow in W NC, mix in west-central NC into northern upstate. Sfc low is over Wilmington at 168...so this favors W NC up into W and central VA for snow
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It's a southern slider. At 156, low is over N FL / S GA. Snowing in central and western NC into SC upstate
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The wave is about 3 hrs slower this run. The southern wave looks nice and clean, no secondary wave hitting California behind it...it's broad, has the southern slider look to it with the confluent flow firm over the NE
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Euro out to 123 looks fine so far. No sign to me that this is going to be amped and north.
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Yeah, ideally for the non-VA group, everything would be a farther south....the southern wave, the sfc baroclinic zone, etc....that would place the 850mb low and its associated warming farther south
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Said I wasn't going to stay up, yet here I am. Here's the CMC ENS Mean. More Miller A-ish than its Op run
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UKMet at 144 has the low in Baton Rouge with the high on the Mid Atlantic coast. The UKMet is opposite of the GFS - it has the sfc high out ahead of our storm (a bit too far out ahead)...but UKMet looks like it's going to go Miller B if I had to guess....looks like it would be a big phasing Miller B
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500mb looked good and normal thru 141 on the GFS, then it pulls in the northern stream from the NE trough at the end....weird run, no need to sweat that one
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GFS is on the suppressed side but it has no interest in showing cold temps until late in the storm...strange model handling or we are just screwed
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North of last run
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00z GFS is a touch north, but I think it will stay fairly suppressed based on 500mb
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00z CMC is north. Major winter storm for WNC into VA. Verbatim it has dual sfc lows in E TN and E SC
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Tonight's map update from WPC...textbook look here for many
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It looks pretty much the same all around except for the wave looking a touch stronger with some increased ridging behind it. Temps look the same
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It's weird, the off hour Euro only goes out to 90, but the off hour EPS goes out to 144 At 144 the 18z EPS looks really good. Low in the northern gulf south of LA. 1038mb High draped solidly from Iowa to PA. 0 deg at 850mb runs from NE GA to a point half way between CLT and CAE, over to Wilmington. The wave is a touch stronger this run, but the NE confluence is solid. It's not perfect for everyone, but it's pretty textbook for many areas. Hard to complain
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The thing I was thinking of was when was the last time we've had a quality wave roll from California / Baja, east into Texas for a good SE winter storm. The last one I can think of is probably Dec 2010. We've had some good winter storms since then, but I can't think of one like this specific and classic setup
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It starts to run into that confluence over the NE, then it just slides east. Sometimes when we have this type of setup, the wave is just too weak in the southern stream and it gets shredded. With this one, it shows signs of being a quality El Nino wave. We want the NE confluence to hold firm, but with a wave that is solid like this one so that it holds its amplitude and strength
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18z GFS
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The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC
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GFS actually ends up staying more suppressed than the last run as it goes off the SE coast....it's another slider. Not a lot of precip up into VA
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GFS will be another mauling, but it's a little north of previous....upper wave is closing off at hr159...big, slow moving wave
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Greenville NWS is bullish .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elogated east-west, with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This should diabaticly enhance classic cold air damming across the Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of a ra/sn event, with the postion of the ra/sn line still in question. The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter storm potential next weekend.
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It's an interesting debate, because I find some of the most interesting discussion to occur many, many days ahead of a storm....i.e. the timeframe where you are trying to sniff out the storm in the long range...and when you wait to start the storm thread, there is a lot of good discussion that remains separate from the storm thread (because it happened earlier), and that discussion gets a bit lost. But I totally understand that many storms fail so it doesn't make sense to start threads early. It's a tough balance, but the 5 day rule is solid.
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Alternate view of the strengthening trend of the damming high at today's hr144 on the EPS Mean...this is significant. The cold damming high to the north is the more difficult feature for us to achieve compared to getting the moisture out of the gulf in this setup IMO.
