griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Wave is amped up now...not sliding east....should be big in SW VA
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It looks a little cleaner this run with the confluent flow from the wave into the NE trough...stronger high out front
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18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja. Slightly better cold press out front out to 93
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WxBell has the Euro Ens members. You can get the GFS Ens members here https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Go to GEFS tab at the top > Precipitation Products on the left > Ensemble Snow Acc - then use sliding button to scroll thru the images (you can choose different regions on the left too - U.S. / Southeast, etc.)
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It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it
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To play devil's advocate, just minor fluctuations with the modeled pattern and features easily yields some widely varying results, especially at this range.
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After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run. A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough
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Big big totals in parts of SW VA again (20-30 inches)
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At 156, it's heavy snow NW of a line from Hickory to Winston
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It pretty much matches the UKMet run to a T
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The wave actually looks really good...closes off over W TN / N MS. Temps are just brutal though, but snowing good in SW VA at 150
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Euro looks quite good with the wave at 500mb, but the temps are a bit of a struggle.
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Overall it's a nice southern sliding wave...temps aren't great overall though
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Euro pretty similar to last run out to 120...low is just SE of Houston...850 0 deg across southern NC
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I disagree
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12z FV3 loop
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Just looked...you are correct QC at hr120, but at hr144 the 0 deg at 850 is on the NC/VA line....so, it surges well north...good for VA, not for south of there
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Again, evolution is similar to FV3, but a little north
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12z UKMet
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12z GEFS Mean took a baby step south like the Op
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Looking at 500mb on FV3 at hr96, it's quite similar to it's last run...it may end up slightly north / slightly south but I'm guessing it will be another good run for many
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We'll know it's a stock SE winter storm once you break out the GFS fail boat gif...welcome back
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12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast
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I think we can call it a baby step toward the snowy FV3 and go to lunch I guess
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12z GFS definitely coming in a little south of last run...supported by 500mb southern wave handling
