griteater
-
Posts
9,631 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by griteater
-
Same as last run, cold air is retreating as storm moves in
-
Classic slider look with the wave. Closed contour over east OK / West AR hr114-120
-
Euro looks quite similar to previous run out to 108
-
Appreciate it Mack...maybe our day in the sun snow will come this winter...repeat this setup with more cold air out front Out to 96 on the Euro. The wave has slightly more amplitude and slightly south coming into the 4 corners down into NW Old Mexico
-
Could be, though I'm concerned about the typical late north climb...I like SW VA into Central VA the best
-
Fixed as my forecast
-
It nudged north on the GEFS Mean (the track / temps)
-
Holy hell...a view of upper level divergence for the ages on that GFS run
-
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51790-december-8-10-2018-winter-weather-threat/?do=findComment&comment=5048178
-
That 00z GFS run was member e2 and e12 from 18z
-
Oh yeah, that'd get us some good snow on the ground...the crawling wave is a low chance scenario though unfortunately
-
UKMet looks similar to its last run...maybe a tick south on the early maps. It's quite similar to the GFS track but doesn't have the closing off wave and the 850 0 deg climbs up to near the NC/VA border at the height of the storm
-
wow, this would yield some big time totals....very, very rare to see this kind of look at h5 down here
-
Substantial backside snow with the crawling big h5 wave
-
GFS looks pretty incredible at h5 with a big closed off wave slowly rolling thru the southland
-
18z EPS Mean bumped north. More amp with the wave and less confluence over the NE
-
But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! No wiggle room
-
Wave is amped up now...not sliding east....should be big in SW VA
-
It looks a little cleaner this run with the confluent flow from the wave into the NE trough...stronger high out front
-
18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja. Slightly better cold press out front out to 93
-
WxBell has the Euro Ens members. You can get the GFS Ens members here https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Go to GEFS tab at the top > Precipitation Products on the left > Ensemble Snow Acc - then use sliding button to scroll thru the images (you can choose different regions on the left too - U.S. / Southeast, etc.)
-
It looked excellent at 500mb, we just would prefer to have a sweet cold air mass laid down out ahead of it
-
To play devil's advocate, just minor fluctuations with the modeled pattern and features easily yields some widely varying results, especially at this range.
-
After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run. A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough
-
Big big totals in parts of SW VA again (20-30 inches)
