griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Gotcha, I was looking broadly at 1000-500mb thickness for temps...it was a small change, but every little bit matters down south
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FV3 out to 96 it's just a touch colder out ahead...looking at h5 it shouldn't be north of prior run....we'll see
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Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb. Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing
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WPC's morning update
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FL...it may come off a little north of there, but don't have the specifics with the early maps
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It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc. The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase
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It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot
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This is the big one Elizabeth, I'm coming to join you honey
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Crushing snow at 114-120 over a big part of west-central NC on the GFS....hawt
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The Canadian bumped south
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GFS closes off a contour at h5 right off the Cali coast....ticking a little stronger coming in there
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Sure. We bang on the NAM a lot, but even at its outer ranges I swear it does as good as any of the other models...it handles southern stream waves well too
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It's about time for the Canadian model to come in with a southerly adjustment
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It's usually colder than the global models during cold air damming, and warmer than the global models with its handling of warm nosing moving in from the south - which tends to be correct. It's higher resolution, so it should handle those situations better....but it has to get the big picture right first, and it may struggle to get that right out at its outer range of 72-84 hour.
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A lifetime of storm failures tends to do that
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12z NAM Surface Wet Bulb Temps on Friday - the white line is 32 deg
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The 06z EPS Mean update: as the storm moves thru the gulf, it bumped a little south from the previous run, but then bumped a little north (northwest) as the low moves off the SE coast. Over the last 3 runs, it has trended stronger with this critical shortwave that rolls thru the Great Lakes on Friday to reinforce the confluence over the northeast to keep our storm from climbing way north. The snow map matches fairly well with the 00z run (note: the off hour runs end at hr144, so there is a bit more snow to come on the snow map, especially to the north / northeast).
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That's the takeaway when viewing the ensemble member and ensemble mean snow totals. On one hand they are bad because they give the impression of total snowfall in areas with mixed precipitation, but on the other hand, if the members/mean are increasing they do give you an idea that the model is trending toward more wintry precipitation, it just may not be snowfall.
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ajr - temperatures are no doubt in question for most areas...but on your loop, it's not an apples to apples comparison because the storm has slowed (i.e. the first model run on Nov 30 in your loop has the sfc low east of Maine at 00z on Mon, while the last model run in your loop on Dec 4 has the sfc low off the SC coast...so, if you go back and look at hr216 from the Nov30 run when the storm is approaching, you can see that the temps are even worse than tonight's run (because the storm on that old run is tracking farther north compared to tonight's run)...hope that makes sense
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EPS Mean Snow
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The wave is a slow crawler thru the SE on the EPS....impressive to see on the mean
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00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run. Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate. It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude
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157 AM WPC Discussion Confidence with respect to the southern stream system is relatively good through Sat night as the surface low moves across the Gulf Coast states and model/ensemble solutions are relatively well-clustered. Forecast confidence declines after 12Z Sun as to whether the low pressure system takes a more easterly trek out to sea or northeasterly close to the coast, or perhaps even slows/stalls for a period of time. The eventual outcome seems to hinge largely on interaction with a relatively small-scale northern stream shortwave currently well out over the data sparse North Pacific, evident on water vapor satellite imagery near 31N/175W. This feature will deamplify as it rounds the apex of the western Canada ridge before amplifying once again as it enters cyclonic flow across central Canada Fri-Sat. Some consensus has emerged as to the eventual track of the Southeast U.S. low pressure system after Sun, with some degree of ensemble clustering around a low perhaps 50-75 miles east of the Outer Banks by Mon morning. This should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt, however, given the current location of the critical feature and the complex degree of interaction that will occur with the southern stream system. As the system shifts eastward Sat into Sun, precipitation will also focus across areas of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and perhaps portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Models have shown a persistent signal for a potentially significant winter weather event for portions of the southern Appalachians late Sat into Sun. Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the low pressure system, accumulating snows may also be possible east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas north into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, although confidence in this aspect of the forecast remains relatively low.
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I don't know about that, but appreciate it...things may very well change drastically between now and Saturday, but in terms of tonight's GFS and Euro with the slow closing off wave as it tracked from southern Cali to NC, the 2 big hit examples from the past that come to mind are the 02/04 storm that you mentioned and 02/69 (those were a little colder out front though I'm sure)
