griteater
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12z NAM Surface Wet Bulb Temps on Friday - the white line is 32 deg
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The 06z EPS Mean update: as the storm moves thru the gulf, it bumped a little south from the previous run, but then bumped a little north (northwest) as the low moves off the SE coast. Over the last 3 runs, it has trended stronger with this critical shortwave that rolls thru the Great Lakes on Friday to reinforce the confluence over the northeast to keep our storm from climbing way north. The snow map matches fairly well with the 00z run (note: the off hour runs end at hr144, so there is a bit more snow to come on the snow map, especially to the north / northeast).
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That's the takeaway when viewing the ensemble member and ensemble mean snow totals. On one hand they are bad because they give the impression of total snowfall in areas with mixed precipitation, but on the other hand, if the members/mean are increasing they do give you an idea that the model is trending toward more wintry precipitation, it just may not be snowfall.
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ajr - temperatures are no doubt in question for most areas...but on your loop, it's not an apples to apples comparison because the storm has slowed (i.e. the first model run on Nov 30 in your loop has the sfc low east of Maine at 00z on Mon, while the last model run in your loop on Dec 4 has the sfc low off the SC coast...so, if you go back and look at hr216 from the Nov30 run when the storm is approaching, you can see that the temps are even worse than tonight's run (because the storm on that old run is tracking farther north compared to tonight's run)...hope that makes sense
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EPS Mean Snow
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The wave is a slow crawler thru the SE on the EPS....impressive to see on the mean
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00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run. Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate. It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude
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157 AM WPC Discussion Confidence with respect to the southern stream system is relatively good through Sat night as the surface low moves across the Gulf Coast states and model/ensemble solutions are relatively well-clustered. Forecast confidence declines after 12Z Sun as to whether the low pressure system takes a more easterly trek out to sea or northeasterly close to the coast, or perhaps even slows/stalls for a period of time. The eventual outcome seems to hinge largely on interaction with a relatively small-scale northern stream shortwave currently well out over the data sparse North Pacific, evident on water vapor satellite imagery near 31N/175W. This feature will deamplify as it rounds the apex of the western Canada ridge before amplifying once again as it enters cyclonic flow across central Canada Fri-Sat. Some consensus has emerged as to the eventual track of the Southeast U.S. low pressure system after Sun, with some degree of ensemble clustering around a low perhaps 50-75 miles east of the Outer Banks by Mon morning. This should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt, however, given the current location of the critical feature and the complex degree of interaction that will occur with the southern stream system. As the system shifts eastward Sat into Sun, precipitation will also focus across areas of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and perhaps portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Models have shown a persistent signal for a potentially significant winter weather event for portions of the southern Appalachians late Sat into Sun. Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the low pressure system, accumulating snows may also be possible east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas north into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, although confidence in this aspect of the forecast remains relatively low.
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I don't know about that, but appreciate it...things may very well change drastically between now and Saturday, but in terms of tonight's GFS and Euro with the slow closing off wave as it tracked from southern Cali to NC, the 2 big hit examples from the past that come to mind are the 02/04 storm that you mentioned and 02/69 (those were a little colder out front though I'm sure)
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Close to 2 inches up there too
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If this southern wave stays disconnected from the northern stream, maintains its strength / amplitude, and treks west to east at a slow pace like this, it's going to be a very impressive storm for wherever it is cold enough
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2 - 2.5 liquid from Asheville to Charlotte area...as much or more in upstate
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Clown map has snow jackpot in full western half of NC save the far SW....and across the central and eastern upstate...big totals
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Wave closes off with small contour over TN at 144
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It's a much better run...snows from north Bama to north GA to upstate to Raleigh and NW at 141
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At 135, snows in far north upstate thru much of NC save the SE portion
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Cold air is actually a little better now as precip cools it down. At 132, snows from Asheville to Charlotte to Raleigh and NW
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Same as last run, cold air is retreating as storm moves in
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Classic slider look with the wave. Closed contour over east OK / West AR hr114-120
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Euro looks quite similar to previous run out to 108
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Appreciate it Mack...maybe our day in the sun snow will come this winter...repeat this setup with more cold air out front Out to 96 on the Euro. The wave has slightly more amplitude and slightly south coming into the 4 corners down into NW Old Mexico
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Could be, though I'm concerned about the typical late north climb...I like SW VA into Central VA the best
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Fixed as my forecast
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It nudged north on the GEFS Mean (the track / temps)
